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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • ruby.thedyke ruby.thedyke Aug 16, 2013 10:25 AM Flag

    A completely pointless week of drama

    Looks like we end a little higher that we started, but with another plunge to the low $20's mid week, some poor saps were talked out of their money by Barron's again. I took some of that money, and I'm not giving it back, but what foolishness this week represented. Most people should stay the heck out of the markets, or just average into index funds over decades, because the game really is rigged against them. All those people who bought this in the $30's based on Crammer's yammering, only to sell out in the $20's in a panic, they're like fish in the Vegas machine, eyes wide shut, blinded by a couple of splashy gains, only to find themselves bleeding on the ground with vultures like me picking at their guts. It's a shame.

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    • Ruby, not sure I can add any substance to your points. I was one of those lured in by the appeal of Linn's story, often told vividly in the media, and the nice distribution. That was in the upper $30's. Like a fool, I rode it down to low $20's, finally panicked, sold, then immediately rebought and added, bringing the basis down substantially (upper $20's). (Should have added even more!) Still under water but believe in the underlying strength of Linn and the opportunities ahead. As to the human side of the episode, I feel for those w0y lost so much because of the assault from K Kaiser and others. I'm sure none of them think for a second about the negative impact their antics have on individual investors who lose hundreds and thousands of hard-earned savings, retirement funds and income. It's one thing to have a view that a stock may go down and to invest or bet accordingly. It's quite another thing to yell fire and effectively orchestrate a multi-faceted campaign to drive the price down simply because it's possible and profitable to do so. I'm totally convinced we've witnessed the latter. For example, I wouldn't doubt for a minute that the SEC informal inquiry was triggered by certain short interests and am investigating how to file a Freedom of Information (FOI) request for all communications SEC has had with such interests leading up to the inquiry.
      Time to get off my soapbox and back to Linn's P&Ls, Guidance Table,Hedge Positions, etc.

      • 1 Reply to fredrickson01
      • I sympathize, but you have to invest based on your own research, not the TV, and not even posters here, whether reputable or not. It's very easy these days to access data, anyone who can read a financial statement should have been able to dissect Hedgeye's attack and realize very quickly the fallacy at its core. You don't have to believe Cooperman, he's made some horrible decisions in the past, but you can believe yourself.

        As for the bear raid, well, it happens, and it worked here in coincidence with LINE's bad luck in Texas. It has not worked in Green Mountain, Herbal Life and Netflix, some very "smart money" took huge baths there. Before all this nonsense I held a small position in LINE for cash flow, but I thought there were cheaper alternatives, especially VNR, my largest holding. But now LINE is my largest holding (though a lot of it is in trading positions I will sell off). So, I'm very grateful for the events that occurred, otherwise, I never would have had the opportunity to buy this so cheap. I'm not angry at those guys, I just feel bad for the people who got scared and lost real money.

        Anyway, glad we were wise enough to get back in. It will take awhile, but even without the Berry deal this will be back in the $30's before 2014 is out.

    • It's rare, but I agree with you. I didn't sell on either big drop & bought on the way down both times. I didn't get it at the bottom but I was close. I learned my lesson from PWE years ago.

      • 1 Reply to kisco62
      • I was in PWE and the other big trust, forget the name, bought in the $25 range in 2009. That was before I started to become educated about high yield securities, and of course I took a bath. But, what I learned from that is the market often provides opportunities to make parallel moves, to shift from one security to another, at similarly depressed prices. I sold out of PWE in the low teens, but I did not really take a "loss", because I parked that money in US MLP's with far superior metrics that had also been hammered down 50% (and later, much lower), and of course recovered and then some after the crisis.

        I also learned to be nimble, often you can act before the damage is done. For example, I had owned EROC for many years, and after the second mess of a quarter in a row, the unit price magically soared above $8, and I instantly bailed. It's now in the $6's. RSO reported a rotten quarter, yet stuck over $6.20 for some reason. I got out and now it's in the $5's. Some of that money went here. The market provides gifts, if you act.

        The point is that you can trade individual securities, if you do the homework and avoid acting on emotion, which sometimes isn't easy to do. In that light, these boards help a lot. But for the most part, retail investors are sheep that get routinely sheared. Unfortunately, most of the people in the country are pretty dumb, they believe in UFO's , buy herbal remedies and think Montana is a country located in South America. They should not be listening to Cramer, and building 5 stock "diversified" portfolios.

    • forget index funds, pick up the dividend aristocrats instead, those company will do very well once interest rates start to rise and you can also sleep better at night. I have a very small position in line still, and this stock keeps me awake at night...

    • So is it the game just rigged against them or is it rigged against everyone. I am sure you have been talked out of a buy in a stock or a sell before.

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