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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • jim_hairball jim_hairball Sep 20, 2013 2:18 PM Flag

    BRY will approve

    Why you might ask?
    If a BRY shareholder did not agree with BRY management about accepting 1.25 LNCO shares then their only options would be to do one of two things.
    A) Vote NO on merger.
    B) Sell their shares of BRY

    Those who choose to sell BRY rather then vote NO, are more likely to be sold to a shareholder who would vote YES. So somewhat through the process of attrition, the NO voters will be selling BRY to the YES voters. This is just my opinion. I sold shares of companies rather then vote no on merger plans, and I think they are many who would also do the same thing.
    Buying BRY shares today just to vote no on the merger is not a smart thing to do. BRY management clearly wants to sell and not continue as an independent company.

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    • At current prices, Berry shareholders would lose roughly $6/share if they vote for the proposal. However, Berry shareholders may also lose money if they vote against the proposal. If a no vote means that Berry sinks to its pre-merger price, Berry shareholders will lose a similar amount whether they vote "yes" or "no."

      • 1 Reply to jjh1941752
      • That is incorrect. Even if a buyer buys his first BRY share today, he will not "lose" $6 if the deal closes. First he gets 1.25 LNCO units worth $29 today. That implies a value of $36. I can't find anyone who can make a case for LNCO units not being higher than $29 if the boards all vote to close the deal. But more importantly, today's BRY buyer is ALSO receiving a right to a future cash flow stream via his 1.25 LNCO units. Those units are expected to pay $3.08/year if the deal closes, so today's BRY buyer would be getting 1.25 * 3.08 = $3.85/year. So odds are the ratio closes to well within $6 after approval, in which case 2 years of distributions makes you cash positive, and then there is still a future cash flow stream to be distributed.

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