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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • johnvon98 johnvon98 Oct 26, 2013 12:06 PM Flag

    Chart Comments

    If you connect the closes on 8/14, 9/10 and 10/11, and 10/25, you get a series of progressively higher lows. If you connect the closes on 7/19 9/13 and 10/22, you get a gently sloping uptrend line of higher highs. If you look at the drops, they were all quite violent and short. 3-4 days, followed by a lateral consolidation. So, we've got higher lows and a series of mildly higher highs. It looks like an ascending triangle to me. If you look at a three day chart, it is really obvious. The 3-day shows a lower bottom to the triangle, at about $26. What makes this tough is earnings after the close on Monday. The day has the potential to be a disorganized mess. We have Fear, Uncertainty and Dread working against the stock price. We also have fear of being left out of a big up move if the report is good working in favor of the price. GLTA

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Uptrend line held and buy signal still valid.

    • Line is hanging right on the uptrend line created by the lows around July 7 and aug 15. If that uptrend line is violated and I suspect it will on Monday morning, then we will see lower prices quickly. The price needs to move up off that trend line RTFN. When stocks are manipulated, charting doesn't work.

      In respect for other posters, I do believe the FED has people, and many at that, just watching the charts on the S&P and Dow when the price gets to break key support lines. Then the buying comes in through their proxies to make that chart pattern look good again. It appears the greatest lie is the economy is doing fine because the stock market is. All one has to do is look at Amazon stock price to see what a hell of a bubble has been created by the FED.

    • Yes, but you neglected that dreaded Morbish factor again. How anyone could champion chart analysis for a stock this event driven is beyond me. A chart predicted that BRY would make noises in an SEC filing that seemed to indicate it was backing away from the deal? Quite the opposite, according to one of your fellow cultists, he was all bullish, said the charts were indicating the deal was a cinch. It's just . . . nonsense.

      • 3 Replies to ruby.thedyke
      • Ruby, I have a lot of respect for your views on most of your posts, and agree with you that TA is not very useful during a news driven period like we have now with LINE/LNCO. I also had little regard for TA in general until I started reading "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy. Although I've just begun to get into it, it is quickly converting me into a believer. It is certainly not a science, nor is it foolproof. But it can certainly be a VERY useful tool in helping to identify trends & turning points. I found that I have a tendency to fall for a good story and possibly buy too early. On the other end, I have a tendency to "fall in love" and fail to sell when I should, which is why I bought this book.

        You seem like an intelligent, well seasoned investor and it may be worth your while to spend some time getting better acquainted with this subject. By the way, I haven't gotten to the section on the Morblish Factor yet, so I can't comment.

      • Way to go, Ruby, you hit the nail on the head! Charts have no predictive inferences, especially in event driven situations. Brokerage houses love to promote them to gullible investors.

      • Not sure I'm a champion of chart analysis. Just making an observation. Morbish is a nice little city in Austria, but not much else I'm aware of.

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