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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • wegneredward wegneredward Oct 26, 2013 12:29 PM Flag

    Reread Kai Shih's Sep 20th Article in prep for Monday's F/S Release


    I'm changing my mindset about the LINE/LNCO/BRY merger from the thread I posted yesterday under "Still perplexed." To prep myself for what I'll be looking for and comparing to in Monday's release I went back and reread the subject article. I'm a former finance guy and frankly, I think Mr Shih is spot-on in his analytical interpretations of the sustainability of LINE's dividend, as well as being quite undervalued at current price even without the BRY merger. Based on my own initial shock from seeing an almost $3.00 drop from Tue high to Fri close, I believe it's quite probable that too many retail investors, like me, who have agonized over the depressed value and extreme volatility in LINE, have forgotten, not fully understood, or not seen the mathematical logic in Mr Shih's valuation of LINE excluding BRY. It helped me immensely to review his factual interpretation once again. Consequently, I change my position of Fri that bad news will be forthcoming next week. The most important news for me, my intention being to hold my LINE position for the long-term income it provides, will be whether the improving operating results management anticipated for Q3 have begun. I also now consider the lack of an accompanying conference call likely due to an expectation of imminent news of the SEC decision, and what will probably be a joint LINE/BRY press release. It just makes the most business sense. The 25th date also more closely matches what has typically been the approx. timing of LINE's earnings releases before this SEC non-public inquiry was instigated by some very aggressive short interests with the aid of the Barron's newspaper reporter. There's allot of fear swirling around LINE, and I believe it is unfounded. An MLP buying a C-corp - maybe the SEC just wanted to establish some reference points/guidelines on how to evaluate future deals of this type. No financial restatements. LINE hasn't mislead investors. LINE is a solid best-of-breed E&P MLP.

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