I notice the besterman fan club is still at work...I'd love to see a compendium of all his posts explaining how this stock was going to reach $1,000 in the next few years (much of that was written a few years ago...shouldn't we be there now?).
All I see here is people on the deck of the Titanic as it sinks, quoting facts and figures to explain how it really can't happen.
" notice the besterman fan club is still at work...I'd love to see a compendium of all his posts explaining how this stock was going to reach $1,000 in the next few years "
Ah, but there is still time. Less than 2 years have passed. Let's wait another 2-3 years before we get all "excited" about how low it can go.
no need to speculate RB told us how it went down at the annual meeting just a few days ago....the genesis of the swap was a conversation between Jack Byrne and Buffet...the Buffet investment was originally to help fund an acquisition by WTM's... it was never meant to be permanent....Jack and Buffet agreed they were competing hard in a couple areas Reinsurance and online (GEICO vs. Esurance).... I think the deal is a testament to Esurance being a very promising competitor/business not the pos you bears make it out to be.... At first they couldn't come to a dealb/c WTM stock was up there and to buy back the shares was not an optimal use of capital.....Ray barrete took over the conversations with Warren and when WTM stock price came down to a level that it represented a great discount to Intrinsic Value Ray "smacked his bid" ......to make the deal even better for both WTM and BRK>A we didn't use all cash but instead through in some runoff instead of cash...I say it made it better for both sides b/c WTM got a value of 1.6x BV for their runoff (that's huge)and their inclusion helps make this a tax free swap for WEB and Berkshire... This part is a big reason why WEB is doing this now, he has a big gain in WTM shares...Ray said this was the key for Warren....if the deal was not tax free Warren would have not been willing to do it....WEB also knows if prices go back up Ray wouldn't be willing to buy back the shares...thus WEB, if he wanted to sell at higher prices (could have 6 mos. ago even though he knew of the soft ins. mkt.)would have a huge tax bill that would leave him with less reinvestable proceeds than if he does this tax free deal here... since both sides want to disengage for multiple competitive reasons its a win/win for both sides......A very good deal for WTM and WEB is selling b/c it makes sense and this is his only shot for a tax free sale that maximizes his return and not for any negative reasons you bears like to spew!!!!!!!
PS - As a WTM shareholder I am thrilled with us shrinking the float by 16% in a soft market instead of writing uneconomic policies like some other cos. out there.... Bought a little more at $432 today!
Liberty Mutual is paying 1.84x (tangible) GAAP book value IN CASH for Safeco. Is that cash subect to the claims of policyholders? How do you reconcile your valuation approach with such inconvenient facts?
Is it undervalued? With price-to-cash flow of 10.7 compared to an industry average of 4.4 and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 16 vs. industry average of just over 8?
Don't be ridiculous. BV is the best way to value insurance businesses. How do you account for prudent managers who decide in some given year they don't want to write any business and just collect on the investments? P/E, P/Cashflow are going to be astronomical, but so what. BV is your piggy bank, sometimes you add to it and sometimes you don't.