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  • questinator questinator Jul 2, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    Best article I've read about EV's and FCV's yet!

    The Disconnect With Electric Cars by John McElroy at Wards Auto. There isn't enough room for the article here but here's some heavy paragraphs...

    Commenting about the price of batteries for these cars and "when" the price is supposed to come down ----

    "How long can automakers afford to “give it time?” EV sales are nowhere near what proponents promised five years ago. Back then President Obama even pledged to have one million EVs on the road by 2015. Oh well. The real eye-opener is that EVs have failed to catch on in Europe, where fuel prices are twice as high as in the U.S., or in China, where incentives for EVs are twice as high as in the U.S."

    "Now we’re about to get fuel cells. Not because of public demand, but because the California Air Resources Board has jiggered the game in their favor. California virtually created the global EV market on its own, by mandating that automakers must generate zero emission credits if they want to sell conventional cars in the state. Since California accounts for 10% of the U.S. market and since 10 other states have adopted that mandate, and since the U.S. market is the most profitable in the world, most automakers have to fall in line."

    "No one will disagree with the goal but there is a big problem with the economics. An electric car like the Nissan Leaf generates three ZEV credits. A fuel-cell car can generate seven credits. As one industry insider told me, “This is our choice. We can lose $14,000 on every EV and get three credits, or we can lose $50,000 on every fuel-cell car and get seven credits.”

    This has disaster written all over it. Automakers have spent billions of dollars, euros, and yen and won to produce EVs and FCVs, fervently hoping they’ll earn a return on that investment. So far they haven’t netted a nickel, and there’s nothing on the horizon to suggest they soon will."


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    • Excellent article.

      We simply must have a breakthrough in batteries and charging in order for electrics to succeed on their own merits. Oil is still plentiful at current prices and will become more so if the price moves higher. The only positive I can see with forcing companies to produce these money losers is the possibility of hastening the day the breakthroughs arrive. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee it will happen at all - let alone anytime soon.

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