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Synopsys Inc. Message Board

  • financial_freedom_4u financial_freedom_4u Jan 27, 2000 12:09 PM Flag

    Employees are buying!

    I don't usually post to the boards, but I

    couldn't resist. Synopsys is a great company. We are
    introducing new products at a rate that would dizzy any other
    company around. We are in the middle of a semiconductor
    upturn powered by cell phones and the internet -- and
    every piece of silicon made is developed with Synopsys
    software -- our software enables Intc, Mot, Amd, Covd,
    Csco, Brcm, Brcd, Ancr, etc to kick ass. This current
    downturn and downgrade is simply a ploy by the analysts to
    get the price down so they can get in. The only
    rational reason for the stock to be down is over worries
    about earnings next month (and as an employee, I have
    no clue what they will be). Even if they were
    HORRIBLE, this is already built into the stock price at $50
    (and $45). If you focus on the long term, this is the
    "dip" you should be buying on -- the analysys know the
    truth, they know that SNPS kicks ass and they will
    upgrade it once again. Finally, please see Edgar for our
    14A -- 200,000,000 shares to 400,000,000. This
    usually means stock split. My forcast -- a quick recovery
    to $75 once everyone sees the numbers. Then a stock
    split to drive it $100/$120. Im loading the boat.

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    • From a value standpoint SNPS is a much better
      investment. From a growth standpoint? who knows? It's all
      about the product and if CDN comes up with a better
      product then to the victor go the spoils.

      willing to bet on SNPS though because they have tons more
      cash for R&D. And although they have lost key sales
      people, the developers are still around. If this hits 35
      I'll probably double down. It's a good

      What do you think?

    • I was just re-reading the latest CSFB analyst
      reports on CDN and SNPS. The CSFB analyst is a former EDA
      industry insider and I take him seriously.

      The SNPS
      report (latest reiteration 12/13/99) estimates SNPS to
      earn $3.60 in FY 2001 and has a 12-month price target
      of $90. SNPS is a "strong buy".

      The CDN
      report (dated 1/26/00) estimates CDN to earn $0.85 in
      FY2001 and has a 12-month price target of $32. CDN is a

      I can't help feeling that the CDN price target is
      reaching a little high. It would imply a forward PE of 38,
      compared to the implied forward PE of 25 in the SNPS
      target. Anybody else feel that these numbers suport SNPS
      as the better investment right now?

    • Hmm... don't think so..SNPS has market share in
      logic synthesis, but that is about it. CDN has a very
      good product in this space now - there are people that
      say that CDN's is better (faster runtime, better
      circuit results) and there are those that say the
      opposite. So this probably means that in reality things are
      pretty even.

      All in all market share is
      important, but for new seats, SNPS has to drop their price
      for logic synthesis since CDN's offering is so good.
      Customers with big SNPS installations don't have a reason
      to switch unless they are upset with SNPS service,
      bug fix rate, or price gouging. and even with a lower
      price, thats not enough of an incentive to switch. But I
      have heard from CDN people that they are winning sales
      without evaluations now.

      I agree with other
      posters - the battle will be in the PhysOpt/PKS space -
      this is a product that will have the biggest impact on
      circuit performance. Doesn't mean that I am not buying
      SNPS at these levels though. Both CDN and SNPS have a
      lot of upside.

      Oh yeah - and those that know
      me will confirm this - the color of the sky in my
      world is very very green.

    • Your message agrees 100% with my take. Thanks for sharing.

    • No news except what's known. Possibly not
      matching quarter estimates despite adamant statement by
      management. Executive salesforce exiting (obviously not good
      news for company reliant on sales). Whispers of
      startups with new technology. put all this together with a
      downgrade and insiders sales recently reported(at the high
      yes but still up to half of some of their positions)
      and you have hammer time.

      Going forward
      analyst expects major changes in the way chips are
      designed (This year) and most thinkeither synopsys or
      cadence will win. realistically they will probably

      rating = obviously a buy at this level. this news is
      reported and already priced in.

    • what color is the sky in your world?

      Cadence's BuildGates results don't come close to Design
      Compiler. ASIC engineers know this. it is a no-brainer to
      choose DC. CDN had to drop it's prices because nobody
      wanted their poor-performing tool.

      technology is simply better that that of CDN (by more than a
      generation or two). that is a FACT. of course, you are
      obviously not an engineer, so you can't be expected to know
      what you are talking about.

      the frontend war is
      over and SNPS won it resoundingly. now, the backend
      war is heating up and the smart money is on

      what does this mean to the short term for SNPS
      stockholders??? who the hell knows? the stock market is like one
      big casino - you can't really know how any stock will
      do in the short term... but, in the long run, they
      will make out like bandits.

      this stock drop is
      simply a great buying opportunity. buy it, hold it,
      start smiling :-)

    • Yes, please let us know what you find out. Thanks.

    • This company is owned 94% by institutions. The
      trading volume is very thin (It's most active day in the
      past six years traded 7% of volume) making it very
      attractive to short interest. They should be happy with
      their gains and eventually insts. will defend the

      I had one of my analysts look at this stock and he
      said at 8x EBITDA it is super cheap for this kind of
      company. He is obviously wary of the significant decline
      and would be worried that the shorts know something
      we may not, but it does look extremly attractive. I
      am going to call some analysts that cover the stock
      and let you all know.

      Good luck

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