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Arlington Asset Investment Corp. Message Board

  • michaelrgiroux michaelrgiroux Aug 20, 2013 11:54 AM Flag

    I'm a buyer at $16.00.

     

    Stock should tank badly , sometime over the next several months.

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    • Michael....take a look at "seeking Alpha" today and see what I have been attempting to explain re: AI...it experienced one of the lowest losses in book value during Q2 $.34 while others lost at much higher levels. I don't think AI is going to decline to a level which you said that you would be a buyer. I'm sure you have had a bad experience with AI but you might want to ask yourself a question...What would your loss or gain be at this time if you held(assuming you sold), I'm only guessing that you either traded this one OFTEN or lost patience with it and sold in a panic. What intrigues me is now you state that you would be a buyer at $16. You seem to be obsessed with this one or angry at losses or What could have been if you you had Held. GOOD LUCK TO YOU ...Dr. EHC

    • Michael....over a year now and you're still playing the same tune. I'm not saying that this couldn't drop to $16, but I think the recovery would be pretty quick. I bought last year at $16 and have held.. I think that you will see a dismal recovery over the next two years and that Reits will continue to perform because the FED gets panic-stricken every time they mention contraction of stimulus or worse TAPERING...REITS FALL INTEREST RATES RISE AND THE ECONOMY STARTS TO TANK SO THE FED RESUMES STIMULUS OR DELAYS TAPERING WHICH IS WHY REITS DON'T STAY IN THE TANK VERY LONG . IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.....NOT GOOD FOR TRADING OR SELLING UNTIL STIMULUS IS REALLY WITHDRAWN COMPLETELY PROBABLY NOT UNTIL 2015 - 2016...OUR ECONOMY IS NOT RECOVERING AT THIS TIME REGARDLESS OF WHAT GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO HAVE US BELIEVE AND BECAUSE OF THE INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAPERING AND INTEREST RATES AND FEAR OF A DEEPER ECONOMIC DOWNTURN THROUGH WITHDRAWING FED STIMULUS

      • 1 Reply to ehcowden
      • I wish I didn't agree with Dr. Cowden, but I'm afraid I do. I was reading a report this weekend that margin debt has grown past 2008 levels due to irrational optimism of traders. What this means to investors is that any contraction in the market will lead to more and more margin calls, leading to more selling, driving down prices faster and further. That, of course, will lead to more margin calls, more sellng, etc. There's also the student debt bubble that is absorbing money that would otherwise go into retirement accounts, and creating even more uncertainly. Most of my investments are in high-grade mutual funds and stocks that will withstand turmoil in the markets, so I'm not selling anything. However, I'm not buying either, but building up my cash reserves so I can go bargain hunting when the time is right.

    • I and a lot of other people will also buy at 16 if it ever happens to get down to that level.

    • Why? I would be interested in why you think the market is going to "tank badly".
      Thank you for sharing your thoughts and insights.

 
AI
14.58-0.16(-1.09%)Aug 26 4:01 PMEDT