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Human Genome Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • jegenmeister jegenmeister Dec 21, 2009 7:51 AM Flag

    Upgrade by Morgan Stanley this am

    Upgraded to Overweight. Watch it spike at opening.

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    • here is the first page of the report fyi

      December 21, 2009
      Human Genome
      Sciences Inc.
      Benlysta Estimates Too Low
      Conclusion: We are initiating coverage of HGSI with an
      Overweight rating and $40 price target, as we see EPS
      potential of >$4.00 on Benlysta approval in lupus alone
      (no pipeline contribution). Benlysta is likely to be the first
      drug approved in lupus in 50 years, and we believe
      investors underestimate the drug’s pricing power,
      penetration across various lupus patients, peak sales
      ($4bn +), and margins. Key catalysts for the stock will
      be: 1) WW regulatory approvals (US potentially before
      YE 2010); 2) presentations of full data at the EULAR
      meeting in 2Q10; and 3) further physician discussions
      on the drug and its penetration.
      Key Debates: 1) What is the size of the global lupus
      market, as Benlysta is the first new drug launch in this
      indication (eligible patient population, penetration,
      pricing, etc.)? 2) Will Benlysta prove efficacious in
      indications beyond lupus? 3) Is there value deeper in
      the pipeline in albuferon, partnered drugs with GSK, or
      proprietary drugs?
      Our key insights: We believe that this first-in-class
      drug in a disease with high unmet need will garner
      greater pricing power than the market expects
      ($30,000/year +). Additionally, we have completed a
      100 physician survey (treat ~20,000 US lupus patients).
      Key conclusions include: 1) physicians expect to treat
      patients across the spectrum of lupus severity, including
      the 30% of patients with mild disease (most investors
      expect only a portion of moderate and no mild patients);
      2) Early penetration across all lupus patients could
      approach 25%+, suggesting $2.7bn in US sales (and
      physicians often underestimate penetration for novel
      drugs before launch); and 3) no steroid sparing claim on
      the FDA label could reduce penetration by 20%.
      Pipeline comes cheap: HGS has multiple partnered
      and proprietary assets, several targeting large diseases
      with significant potential long-term cash flows. There is
      little-to-nothing in the stock for them, representing a
      potential source of upside if positive data emerge.

    • Heck, it's spiking in PM!!! Whoo Hoo, what a nice Christmas gift for us this week! I believe we see 30 by Christmas! Beauuuuuuuuuuuuutiful

      That makes me feel much better LOL

    • Watch Bloomberg tv.