Following FDA approval, first year sales estimates were 500 million. Watkins stated "multi-billions in revenue". Now, we see the reality. Less than 85 million for the first full year. And not one new trial for Benlysta in another indication. Back in 2009, it was claimed that Benlysta would treat 28 other B-cell diseases. Do you see what I am saying? Everything has changed with Benlysta. It will never garner the sales that we all hoped. And so the drop from 30 to 10 is justified. The rest of the internal pipeline is gone. Watkins was forced to push back profitability from 2013 to 2014. And to make matters worse, all of the faithful HGSI employees thought they were working for the next Amgen, and now 15% are getting laid off.
I do agree on Witty's conservative approach, but with a patent cliff, and many moons away from actually having a drug hit the market; Witty will become criticized much like the CEO of Eli Lilly. Making a stance of no acquisitions or small ones will not benefit the company in the long run. Witty recently walked away from a bidding war for BioFarma in Turkey in Nov. 2011. GSK is now one of 6 or more competitors that are giving non-binding bids to purchase a stake in one of the oldest pharmaceutical companies in Turkey "MN Pharmaceuticals". The winning bid will be handled by Merrill Lynch and it has not been determined if the stake will be a limited or large stake ownership. Eli Lilly has been in talks with them since Sept. Out on the web. it is listed that GSK acquired Theravance and is listed as "pending". All I can find is a large purchase of common stock in the Theravance. So, yes he is very conservative in certain arenas. It is speculative that he asked 4 Board memebers to step down. I think we would all like to believe a buy-out is pending here. I will continue to hold on unless things regress as you say. Hopefully, since we already know the numbers for Q4; I hope that prescriptions written thus far going into Q1 will be revealed and hopefully an upgraded guidance. That would a wonderful boost.
Smelky: Why are you excluding the other P3 programs when you comment. If HGSI did not have a selling Lupus drug would you then hock on them because they had no selling portfolio.
That is not what you were saying before FDA Lupus approval on this board (assuming you are the originial Smelky)---you were then accounting for potential and now you account only for Ben sales! GSK isn't only going to look at Ben sales---its the totality of it all!
You can invest and play bio that way, but thats not the way I am doing it! I try to take into account all possibilities realized or still unrealized!
PCYC is trading way north of HGSI PPS, they are in P2 and they ain't selling jack! I factor in realized strength, potential in progress, and unrealized potential.
HGSI currently has a 2.3 billion dollar market cap. If we exclude Darapladib potential, Benlysta sales do not warrant a takeover at any price. At what price does a company pay to get 200 million(2012 sales estimate)in revenues? If a premium was offered for this company, it would take Glaxo 10 years to get their money back. As I have often said, HGSI's only real asset are their accumulated losses...
anyone think something is in the works? lots of CALL options have been trading. I think it makes sense for Glaxo to get this done. Why have money on the balance sheet earning mill rates when they could acquire a pipeline with YOY growth >30%
I would like to hope so; time will tell. As many have seen, these things hit overnight (UK time) and we wake up to find it's Christmas morning. Fingers Crossed. Despite what Kutz says that he is out and about and talks to Scientists; these Scientists sit behind desks at GSK and HGSI; they are not out in the field and usually know nothing; this type of info. does not leak easily. Yes, they are told bits and pieces to do their jobs, but rarely is there enough info. to make an assumptioin "of" or "not" an acquisition. Upper management would obviously know more. Acquisitions are the best kept secrets. Just because there is no hub bub; don't rule it out. Citigroup backed the senior notes with some notes coming up for maturity in August; I suspect someone knows something for heavy call volume in July. So, this gives everyone time to buy up before August. JMO.