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  • adeiflig adeiflig Sep 11, 2011 7:10 PM Flag

    AT $ 1.40/Watt = Profit $ 2 per share

    Lets play along with $ 1 per watt figure since the analysts say it will be hit in 2015, of course we will have quadruple the orders if price drops that far.

    Assuming status quo:

    2 GW per year at $ 1 per watt is $ 2 billion in revenue

    Profit is 5% of gross revenue so, $ 100 million

    Less R&D plus interest 60 million

    Net profit 40 million

    Shares o/s 40 million

    EPS $ 1 per share

    Trading at 30x earnings gives $ 30 per share

    Now as you say, at $ 1 per watt, sales should boom so one can expect 4GW to perhaps 6GW worth of orders.

    Plus vertical integration will be completed in early 2012 which means that net profit will not be 5% but more like a 10% due to reduced cost structure.

    No matter how you cut it, the price of CSIQ is undervalue, trading at 20% of its true value.

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