TIER-3 analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer/Canaccord Genuity
“Analyst” (LOL) Jonathan Doucheimer is the perfect example of what a Tier-3 analyst is all about. Since solar stocks are just a small sideshow to him and therefore doesn’t spend much time trying to figure things out, I guess that would explain some of his recent commentary, and the fact he can’t decide whether to buy or sell (three-3 “hold-to-hold” upgrades/downgrades in the past 5-months alone).
From his Feb 22, 2012 “hold-to-hold” upgrade;
“Analyst, Jonathan Dorsheimer, said, "We are raising our price target to $5 to reflect the gradually improving sentiment in the solar space. Despite the improving sentiment, we still expect a very difficult transition period in 2012 and remind investors that profitability in solar may still be elusive despite volume growth given our predictions of deceleration in the velocity of cost reductions without commensurate ASP stabilization. Our target is based off of a 0.4x multiple of tangible book value, a 20% discount to the Tier-1 peers."...say whaaat???
So he raises his price target to $5, and basically says it would be 20% higher if it was Tier-1.
Then, somewhere in the last 5 months, he did a “hold-to-hold” downgrade to $4.
Now, what’s just absolutely precious is the reason for his latest “hold-to-hold” downgrade to $3;
"Recent headlines about new renewable targets in Japan and China with strong installation data from Germany and a belief that the industry has bottomed have caused the solar group to rise by approximately 20% in the past two months." Dorsheimer said expectations have risen, but many companies in the sector will still probably report further losses and limited visbility.”
So the downgrade has nothing to do with CSIQ itself, but rather that the “solar group” has risen by 20%, and some of the companies may still report losses...REALLY??? When did they finally figure that one out??? This complete laziness to look at the entire group as one entity, instead of on a company by company basis, is just one reason why Jonnie garners so little respect in the investment community.
So let me get this all straight; 5 months ago it’s a Tier-2 company that should be $5 based on their made-up formula of 0.4x tangible book value. But wait, the book value is the same, and CSIQ has clearly demonstrated its Tier-1 status. Not to mention that its high margin project business is just now getting up to full speed. So now it’s worth only $3.00??? Shouldn’t it be $6.25 now, based on their own metrics???
Does anyone other than me see what an absolute pile of “dirt” these Tier-3 analysts really are? They can’t even get their own story straight from month to month. Everyone knows that CSIQ is in a better position in every aspect than it was in February...even the headline analyst and the fantasy analyst wouldn't argue that point. In fact, there are even some who think it's worth more. Or is there some other reason Jonnie wants you to sell now....
"but many companies in the sector will still probably report further losses and limited visbility". Isn't CSIQ the closest one to reporting gains, while also having by far the best visibility (I can easily see more than 2-billions worth of visibility). This is why the lazy analyst "group mentality" is so flawed for anyone with an investment timeframe of more than 2 weeks.
The exact opposite of this lazy Tier-3 analyst is Piper Jaffray...whether you agree or disagree, at least he took the time to earn his money by looking at every solar stock as an individual company.
I couldn't have picked a better time to start my "double-down" accumulation...so I guess maybe I should be thanking Jonnie, STP, & TSL for their incompetance. Pretty soon, the big-4 will be down to just the Big-one...