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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

  • adeiflig adeiflig Jul 31, 2012 8:47 PM Flag

    CSIQ BEATS ANALYST VIEWS....

    The analysts were expecting a loss of 33 cents per share,

    With recent CSIQ update, I estimate that without foreign exchange issues, CSIQ will break even which is a huge improvement.

    Calculation is easy:

    410MW sold at 12% gross margin gives income of $ 49,000,000

    R&D.............................................. 3,000,000
    Interest.........................................11,000,000
    Selling..........................................20,000,000
    Gen and admin....................................15,000,000

    NET PROFIT OR LOSS...................................NIL

    Currency loss of $ 8 million not included as it is one time event.

    Analysts were expecting a $ 13 million loss, loss is NIL.

    Next quarter, I expect 550MW to be sold at average gross proft of 12%, 1st quarter of profitabilty, which explains why CSIQ wants to expand due to high demand. In terms of eps, it amounts to 32 cents per share for this coming quarter.

    Huge upgrades coming.

    JMHO

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    • There is a fine line between mixed and balanced. It is easy to misunderstand here.
      Here...I have highlighted both positives and negatives.

      GLTY

    • I have just added 1303 stocks at 2.5908/sh.
      This four digit price quote indicates...these are machine generated trades...
      No real selling is going on!

    • SC, it doesn't take long does it to see that the emperor has no clothes...

    • YOU MAKE NO SENSE...

      1. You just said refer to my previous when you said at 3.50 it(CSIQ) was the most undervalued of its peers correct?

      2. So, then why at $2.50 would you be worried about people getting caught at the "TOP". Its already 25% below when you said it was THE MOST UNDERVALUED.

      3. Are you saying $4 is/was the top? But at $3.50 it was THE MOST UNDERVALUED? Because, Ill be an optimist here...I think its likely we will both see way more than 4.00 by years end...in fact I am betting it will be 8-10 by then.

      4. So, if it was THE MOST UNDERVALUED AT $3.50, what is it at $2.50. You yourself say you bought at $3.00, then averaged again at 2.60 again you claim...so you must be pretty "biased" to the positive side as too the future performance of this stock ! So, why all the mixed signals....JUST PUT A CORK IN IT and put your money where your mouth is and CONVICTION BUY!!!! BUY BUY BUY BUY....thank yourself in 8 months.

    • Please refer my earlier posts...I said CSI is the most under valued solar stock among the peers when CSI was at around 3.50$/sh.
      Still I am glad I did not buy this at 4$/sh. I bought this at 3$/sh and 2.6$/sh.

      For all I care, you can quote me any way you like.

    • I just read their presentation...
      And their road map is to reduce the module cost from 73c/w to 60c/w. This is inline with my views earlier!

    • Your telling me...you think CSIQ is at a top? Whats BV $10.00? WOW...So, if 2.50 is getting caught at the top then what was it at $25, 20, 15 then? This is the deal of the last 10 years IMHO.

    • "I am trying to paint a balanced view...so innocent retail investors won't get caught buying chinese solar at the top and sell at the bottom."
      Btw...I am averaging this down from $3/share. Before you jump on judging me....look at my message history. And I am sucker for numbers. Because they don't lie!"


      WAIT:

      First you said you are doing this analysis for yourself to see if you should buy more, average down or whatever....now ohhhh ITS TO make sure the "innocent retail investor doesnt get burned" Okay, I wont judge...you are a Saint, with no motives at all but to fulfill us with your EPS projections! Bottom line: If we are moving in the right direction towards positive EPS and Qu gives some nice color to the conference I am a holder for at least 1 year. GLTY

    • CSI Q1 module all in cost is 73c/w.

      Per your theory...7c reduction for every quarter...means 66c/w in Q2.

      Then..at 8.5% GM ASP should be around 8.5 = (ASP-66)/ASP
      ASP = 72c/w

      You think Q2 module ASP for a Tier1...went this low?

    • All I am doing is EPS estimate. What is wrong with this?

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CSIQ
14.12+0.51(+3.75%)Sep 29 4:00 PMEDT