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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

  • solarcrunch solarcrunch Jan 30, 2013 9:29 AM Flag

    Hum EPS

    So, someone has us at 1.77 EPS for 2013 (I suppose it is Nomura). That is getting closer to what Nano calculated. Id take that even if its lower end and most is back end loaded.Have to admit I like Nano's forecast a little better albeit very optimistic....however, so am I, so his works for me...not too mention Id be willing to bet Nano put more work into it than the Analyst did. I am anxiously awaiting further deals to add into the spreadsheet to make our long term picture even clearer!! Id love for an update on Japan, Canada, and anything else brewing from the company.

    Nano - I can only imagine how you are laughing at your SPVI board. It seems your CSIQ thread gets the most coverage and replies. Now, I dont see a problem with the dissenting opinions...but when it inevitably leads to SOL discussion and panel efficiency it makes me laugh. In truth, I think many Solars will do well this year...just CSIQ will do better. You really got under the one guys skin regarding "all in costs" and he and others are focused on ELPS. ( "klothilde") . It would be nice to see an update on ELPS at some point. Anyway, I am not sure of the calculations that he used to get all in costs at .55 to .58 at year end 2013. Thats almost where we are at now .57? I realize poly is going up in price, but I assume with their processing/manufacturing they will be able to find ways to reduce the .57c number as a way to improve teir bottom line even further. You have a better handle on that. Id be happy with .2c a Q bring us down towards .50c. I dont know if its attainable or not...we'll see. Exciting times....cant wait for the next BIG DEAL!!!

    GLTY and all!!

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    • sc, concerning ELPS...I love how the SOL cult fixates on the past when it comes to CSIQ, but turns a blind eye to SOL's past and are 12 months forward looking with them. There's a link I posted on Nov 29th on the other place concerning ELPS. The MWT it uses is in collaboration with ECN. Point of the story...MWT is ready for mass production, and CSIQ has been ramping up.

      Obviously there were some bugs to work out with MWT on a mass production scale (high breakage, efficiently converting existing lines) , and therefore was slow to ramp. But investing is about the future, not the past...and they've definitely been ramping up since Q4. Big question is what is the demand for it (of course that depends on selling price)...probably high in Japan but what about the rest of the world?

      • 1 Reply to nanofrogfish_spf
      • It is an interesting point. We are still top tier and a very highly regarded company with great partnerships that will pay very big dividends in the future. Maybe as you suggest we are not at that point yet where the "best" or most efficient panel matters as much. Virtus, Honey, etc etc etc...

        I am not concerned about the slow ramp on ELPS. We are still getting projects with our current lineup and great warranty and the future looks "SUNNY" for CSIQ so to speak!!

    • sc, my last reply disappeared again. Quick EPS does not include taxes, didn't have any idea what they'd be, so the final eps would be lower. I'm sure these analyst have barely spent a fraction of the time that I have on this...I don't trust them on anything quite frankly...that's why I do it myself.

      btw, the arguments for SOL having a higher upside potential this year than CSIQ have some very questionable assumptions attached to you noted I doubt Qu is going to guide for no or negative improvement this year! They assume that spot poly will double... doubtful, but even if it did so what. CSIQ would just buy more from GCL, and GCL has publicly stated last Oct they won't increase prices, in fact they said they will continue to fall, regardless of China poly tariffs. They also fail to mention that CSIQ gets higher ASP's...consistently been 5c to 6c higher the last 2 years (maybe tier-2 status penalty?). Although I expect that to drop, the couple extra cents more than offsets the couple cents lower costs that SOL might have. and btw, up till now CSIQ's costs have actually been lower Sol's. Then look at valuations. I think SOL is a good company on the right track, and will do very well, but the "Sol the Powerhouse" is like these guys are betting on a dream...

      • 1 Reply to nanofrogfish_spf
      • "CSIQ would just buy more from GCL" be clear, I'm talking about buying more wafers from GCL (not poly directly). They would at that point just idle their internal wafer process (only about 200MW anyways), a big advantage of being virtually integrated...much easier to adapt to the changing marketplace.

        Also, one other advantage with working with GCL...they have a lot of big global projects going on, so they trade wafers for modules with some of their tier-1 for both parties. It's definitely in GCL's best interests to see that their customers are the most competitive in the global marketplace...they have a lot of idled utilization they'd like to turn on again..

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