I expect an ugly Q4...but I think its been baked in (they said as much...although it appears Q4 did spruce up a bit and may help, there is still the LDK issue). Someone pointed out on SPVI forum that they had set aside 10M for the 30M lawsuit they lost but that they may have in fact paid this in parts already. If they owe the whole 30M and it hits the Q...the one timer alone will be drastic...but it is what it is a one timer. Hoping the person who discovered this is correct and that they have already made many allowances and impact will be less. Otherwise we are talking well over 1.00 loss probably.
For me, it doesnt matter much. The guidance especially Q2 on out will be spectacular. I am holding strong, I suggest you do same..but its personal preference. If we lose a dollar-1.50 even PPS...no big deal. This, as I said before, may be the solar stock in the sweet spot for 2nd half 2013 into late 2014/and into 2015. I expect 10 PPS by October the latest IMO!! If they continue to execute beyond that you may see a close to triple from here by Q4/year end 2013-Q1 2014.
SC, read your last post before it disappeared....thanks
I was thinking, and what’s kind of ironic right now, is that my biggest concern moving forward is not CSIQ’s earnings, but actually TSL’s, because they release first. TSL has been notorious lately for bad reports. And even though things are better overall, they’re still in a transitional stage (trying to do projects now), and they have a lot of high-priced inventory that will certainly flow into Q1 numbers. And even though they may hit MW guidance, based on export data I think a big chunk of it will come from China, so I think they may disappoint again on GM (earnings) outlook...especially since expectations are a lot higher now.
Note that ASP’s in Canada are about 70% higher than in China, and in Japan it’s 40% higher...both markets CSIQ sell a big percentage of their modules in. You can also tell from the last couple CC’s that Qu isn’t really too anxious to do business in China, because of the real low margins and with projects the concerns on getting connected to the grid and getting paid...they’re putting their money to work in much higher margin markets (while still maintaining that low-cost Chinese manufacturing). After earnings, I think the location of business will become much more of a focus.
CSIQ will soon pass TSL on stock price, but it still has about 70% to go to pass on market cap...which based on fundamentals, revenue and earnings outlook, and Tier status should be much higher. TSL just doesn’t deserve the premium they get over CSIQ and some of the others right now...they’re still a decent company but just another solar company now with no real differentiation to set them apart...
nano - what do you think short term CSIQ stock price will be in 3-6 months? It seems CSIQ's 2013 earnings will come in second half of 2013? What would be a fair value for CSIQ by the end of 2013? I am new to this solar space and learning everyday.
Sc, I think what you’ll see playing out this earnings season (and the rest of the year), will be similar to what happened to SPWR. After they announced, I saw 3 articles from 3 sources...one was gloom & doom, one was gloom and roses, and one was all roses. The gloom & doom guys yelled the loudest, and the day traders took advantage of it for ONE day with a small sell-off, then exploded upwards the next day...and look at it since! I’ll have some powder set aside if they try to play these games again with CSIQ...but I actually think their outlook will be so bullish that the price will spike higher that day.
One big difference between this year and last is that prices have stabilized throughout the supply chain. Another even bigger difference is that all that pain the last couple years has resulted in a lean and mean industry at the very beginning stages of explosive global growth. One major investment banking firm after another is coming to this same conclusion. It’s now unstoppable. Gordon Johnsen, Jenny Chase, Raymond James and the like’s deceiving rhetoric and half-truths are now being exposed for what they are, and their credibility is now at all-time lows...
Last year, any single negative event (or even the threat of one), would send the whole sector lower. GJ’s little tricks of using Germany FIT cuts to scare everybody doesn’t work anymore...why, because the entire industry is at the beginning of massive, explosive global growth, even as FIT’s are being reduced or eliminated (some now say demand will be at 300 GW in 2020...that’s just 7 years from now!). Just like it doesn’t matter right now whether you bought at $2 or $2.50, it soon won’t matter much whether you bought at $5 or $6...
Last November I think it would be safe to say that despair and desperation were at an all-time low...that’s what’s needed to truly form a bottom. And the positive news is what’s needed to keep the stocks moving higher...and there’ll be plenty of it throughout the year.
Btw, this is all stuff I was preaching all last year. I didn’t know when this would take off...I just knew it was coming some day and it gave me plenty of time to get on board very cheaply, and to not get scared out of my investment. Now all I have to do is patiently sit back and watch this industry explode upwards for many decades to come...
The very first stock i bought was MA thats not important but the second stock i bought was CSIQ and that was back in 2007. forget $10 -$15, I've seen 30+ bucks a share and i'm pretty sure we'll see it again soon. So I'm definitely not selling at $5 per share. My interest in earnings is to try and gauge the psychology of the stock. I'm thinking theres a lot of stupid money waiting to jump in and short the stock on any bad earnings reports and if thats the case i'd like to pick up more on the cheap. price should be based on what they'll be doing 6 months in the future not a one time hit.
you know the saying "on the internet no one knows you're a dog." what i'm saying is believe as much or as little of this as you'd like(i've been attacked before for making stuff up). We both know there's a lot of idiots on these boards.