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DepoMed Inc. Message Board

  • chipper4747 chipper4747 Feb 24, 2011 4:33 PM Flag

    March 3: Risks/Rewards

    With various biotechs imploding left and right (this week: DCTH and SLXP), I'm trying to ascertain the possible outcomes with various issues to be discussed on the 3 March conference call, and the impact of those outcomes on DEPO stock price.

    Here are 9 issues likely to be discussed on 3 March, with possible outcomes as mentioned on this board and in DEPO documents:

    1) Status of ABT contract mediation

    Possible outcomes: a) resolved, ABT stays with DEPO and Gralise as originally envisioned with ABT assumption of Solvay contract, b) resolved through mediation: ABT bails and makes all payments due, including any penalty fees, c) unresolved: still in mediation; d) unresolved, mediation failed: moved on to binding arbitration.

    Impact on pps: Outcome (a) very positive, (b) positive but less than (a), (c) no impact, (d) little impact to negative impact.

    2) Status of finding a new partner for Gralise (if 1b applies)

    Outcomes: a) No, still searching; and b) Yes: new partner named, with contract details if possible.

    Impact on pps: Outcome (a) same as impact from (1b); (b) very positive impact.

    3) Launch and commercialization of Gralise

    Outcomes: a) launch proceeding: partner identified (including possibly ABT), news of launch provided, etc.; b) launch delayed: ABT retains Gralise rights but refuses to launch, sending issue to arbitration; c) launch proceeding: DEPO regains full rights to Gralise, ABT provides sufficient support to effect launch such that it would be cash flow positive; d) launch delayed for some other reason(s).

    Impact on pps: Outcome (a) very positive impact, (b) little impact to negative impact, (c) positive impact , (d) negative impact.

    4) Additional data request from FDA for Gralise

    Outcomes: a) have not yet talked with FDA to discover exactly what they want and how we might provide it; b) have talked to with FDA and have a clear path to providing the data in X number of weeks/months; c) have talked to FDA and clear path forward is either not clear or very labor intensive/time consuming/expensive.

    Impact on pps: Outcome (a) no impact, (b) very positive impact, (c) negative impact.

    5) DM-1992 discussion

    Outcomes: a) Collaborative partner announced; b) no partner announced; c) other news pertaining to DM-1992 including additional Phase I news.

    Impact on pps: Outcome (a) very positive impact, (b) no impact, (c) depends on news.

    6) Glumetza relaunch and availability

    Outcomes: a) As expected, underway; b) problems with relaunch

    Impact on pps: Outcome (a) no impact to positive impact, (b) negative impact.

    7) Breeze 3 trial news

    Outcomes: a) no news (is good news); b) unexpected bad news.

    Impact on pps: Obvious.

    8) Acuform Technology updates

    Outcomes: a) No new arrangements: b) new arrangements/deal/contracts

    Impact on pps: a) no impact, b) positive impact.

    9) DM-3458 for GERD

    Outcomes: a) Out-licensing deal in place; b) no additional news

    Impact on PPS: a) positive impact, b) no impact.

    Other (new) news: ??

    I'm curious if anyone sees potential potholes (> 50% chance of occurrence) in the above issues that could hurt the stock price once the CC is completed. Thanks.

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    • I have few more questions I would like you to ask CP(only if there is any additional time allocated to you):

      1. Should an investor buy the stock or sell it here;

      2. Do you think Depomed stock will outperform the general market?

      3. Do you think Serada trial results will be good for the company?

      4.Who wants to buy the company and how much will they pay for it?

      He should be happy to address those questions too.

      Thanks in advance

      • 2 Replies to rtk_ecal
      • "I have few more questions I would like you to ask CP(only if there is any additional time allocated to you)"

        It's very kind of you to think I will be the chosen one to ask questions of our beloved CEO. Actually, I will be on a plane flying home after a biz trip and will miss the CC live. I'm sure y'all here will dissect it from every angle, forwards and backwards, in real time no less, and so I will look forward to all the comments by the time I land.

        I've already explained in a previous post why I was coming at this CC from all angles. It's not unusual that you found my post to be overkill as I'm an analyst by trade, and so my friends and family often tell me I "over-think" things at times. Such is me. So I am sure, rtk, that you will continue to find my posts dreary, dull and of course, of little value to you. I'm glad you get some enjoyment from poking fun at them. Between ignoring someone's posts and poking fun at them...I'd go with the latter also.

        Cheers.

      • im cracking up.

    • You left out the $48mm elephant in the room.

      (In theory, we'll know about that prior to the call.)

      • 2 Replies to drive_gt3
      • "You left out the $48mm elephant in the room."

        You're right. I actually had that on the list at one point, making 10 items, then thought that it's sort of part of the ABT contract issues. But it probably does deserve to stand out on its own, especially if not resolved by 3 March.

        I was looking to see what the bright lights on this board view as the worst possible pothole that we might trip over (on the CC) on our way higher from $8. (I have loaded up my own personal account with as much DEPO as my allocation percentages allow...but I also manage 8 other accounts....having less risk in them... which I am considering adding DEPO to, and was trying to see why I shouldn't add DEPO before the CC. So far I don't see why I shouldn't be buying before then).

        Much obliged.

      • we wont have time to get to that small issue...too many more important questions like:

        Additional data request from FDA for Gralise
        Outcomes: a) have not yet talked with FDA to discover exactly what they want and how we might provide it; b) have talked to with FDA and have a clear path to providing the data in X number of weeks/months; c) have talked to FDA and clear path forward is either not clear or very labor intensive/time consuming/expensive.

        Impact on pps: Outcome (a) no impact, (b) very positive impact, (c) negative impact.

    • you forgot these:

      1) ice caps melting
      2) meteors becoming crashed into us
      3) the ozone layer leaving
      4) the sun exploding
      5) blowing ourselves up

      don't worry no matter what happens, you californians can go hang with hawaii, alaska can come too...

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZMwKPmsbWE

 
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