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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

  • dannynguyen76 dannynguyen76 Feb 27, 2013 2:28 PM Flag


    Is it time to go long UVXY or VXX? Dow gains back over 250 pts in the last two days.

    Bake, thought??

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    • It's never really time to go long those two, or TIVX. Everyone thought the market would crash to to the sequestration issue, which wasn't really an issue, just political fear mongering. I knew it was going to be settled. I posted that last week, but I didn't know it would be so soon. The Republicans caved in faster than I thought they would. So the "catastrophe" that everyone was planning for on March first, isn't going to happen. So, today's rally was a "relief" rally, coupled with massive short squeeze. The Fed is still pumping 85 billion per month, and we still have 0% interest rates. So that hasn't changed. The opportunity to go long on these was Monday morning, after 11 A.M., and it only lasted until the close. The probability of timing that perfectly was pretty close to zero. People who made money being long were lucky, not skillful. Politicians were in control of the market, which is why I decided not to play that game, and trade NG. We saw how that turned out. Although my idea was correct, I still got stopped out by some phony weather report. Remember, UVXY was $8.79 on Feb. 19, last Tuesday, when the Dow was 14,035. It now sits @ 14,075. So that shows you, it still has a long way to fall, as it closed @ $10.30 today. As volatility goes down, so do these products. You always want to be short these, except in a market crash, or just a big drop. The decay & contango are always working against "longs". They are not meant to be held long, even overnight. People who play it "long" have to get very lucky, or they will be wrong 95% of the time. Look @ the prospectus @ Proshares for UVXY. It says, in bold print, "Not an investment"..."not to be held long term, even overnight". That's why they are such great shorts, and you should always short any "pops" to the upside. I'm kicking myself for covering my short yesterday, but market was so volatile due to politicians, you couldn't tell which way it was going. This morning i went short when market was up only 35-40 points. It rallied another 140 points, but I'm only down 15 cents on my BTU short, and I am actually up a few cents on my MPEL shorts. They kept trying to fall, but market kept going higher, pushing them back up. tommorow, they fall, so hit them first thing in the morning. You might be able to make money going long UVXY/VXX, but the odds are stacked against you. Wait for a pullback & when they go up, short them.
      I was @ the dentist, so I missed the last two hours today.

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