Despite my earlier posts, even I am a bit surprised at the run-up recently. I suspect it's due to investors starting to appreciate HPTX's situation, summarized here:
- The patent. This really is a game changer. Since it's in the label, the normal 7 years of exclusivity turns into 19 yrs, or long-term revenue from licensing deals if they decide to allow generic competitors. That's a *big* freaking deal.
- The right to buy Buphenyl. I think the literature does show that Ravicti is a better drug than Buphenyl, but assuming HPTX buys Buphenyl, they'll have the ability to control pricing even if patients don't receive insurance approval to switch drugs. Another *big* freaking deal.
- Retention of Ammonul (the IV formulation of NaPBA) by Ucyclyd. Assuming HPTX exercises its option to buy Ammonul from Ucyclyd and Ucyclyd exercises its option to retain the drug, they pay HPTX $13M.
- Promising Phase II hepatic encephalopathy results. There currently aren't other drugs in the HPTX pipeline, but this is a looming 2nd indication for Ravicti. There currently aren't great treatments for HE. Ever had a patient on lactulose? Ask them how much they enjoy having constant diarrhea as a result of their treatment and you'll appreciate how badly a better treatment for HE is needed.
- Good management. They beat their internal deadline for selling Ravicti, and now are raising $$ at the right time.
Upcoming catalysts with expected timing:
- revenue from initial sales of Ravicti (1Q13 and beyond)
- announcement of the purchase of Buphenyl (2Q13)
- announcement of the purchase of Ammonul by HPTX, and subsequent retention of Ammonul by Ucyclyd, resulting in payment to HPTX as above (2Q13)
- announcements related to Phase III HE studies (not sure when this is expected, but I'd guess not earlier than 3Q13)
Most of this is from the S1, which I'd recommend you review:
...uhhh, let's see....hmmmmm...let me think.....wait, I got it!!!...because there are a lot of really stupid, naive investors?...HAW!...not to mention the small army of brokers looking to mske hefty commissions selling this POS stock!!!...HAW, HAW, HAW!!!!...
come back rrtzrealmd! It was a lot more fun on here with you antagonizing me. I expect further movement in HPTX, including a possible settle back toward $20, once the float increases. But I suspect you've bought back your short shares already. A 25% loss in a month would be hard for me to stomach as well.
I haven't bought back my short shares if that's any comfort. Just don't buy the hype that hptx all of a sudden should carry @ 1/2 billion market cap for an orphan indication. Market has this priced assuming perfection, and then some. Price action on this ticker is absolutely controlled by the big boys, so riding the wave for now. But market cap prevails more often than not.