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Biodel Inc. (BIOD) Message Board

  • biotechinvestman biotechinvestman Aug 3, 2010 5:42 PM Flag

    Wedbush Conference - WOW!

    Hopefully everyone had a chance (or will have a chance) to watch/listen to the replay from today's Wedbush Conference "Best Ideas In Healthcare" conference in NYC. Here is the link:

    The presentation by CEO Errol De Souza was very well done. He was very matter of fact about the good (BIOD dominating $20B diabetes market by 2020) and the not-so-good (India illustrated by Dr. De Souza in his speech, this is WAY overblown and a non-issue for PDUFA) regarding Biodel Corp.

    Bottom line. Many have discussed buyout opportunities...some big pharma (like SNY) coming in and buying Biodel. Based on the overall diabetes market and Biodel's potential to dominate the market for decades....I can't see them doing a deal for under $1 billion. I'm sure that those who've studied this drug and it's pipeline as much as I have wouldn't disagree with that. They'd be GIVING it away for anything under $600million. Sol Steiner didn't start this company to give it away after a few years. He started this company to dominate the diabetes market and he's on his way.

    By the way, $1B sales price puts BIOD stock around $42. Again, I think that's great. But as a significant shareholder, I'd be disappointed at that. I think many other shareholders that see the opportunity here would be too. The 55 employees of Biodel Corp would probably say the same thing. This stock has $150+ share potential...and if you don't believe me - you aren't looking at the data.


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    • I listened to this amateur hour Wedbush/BIOD conference call. Who was the clown presenting?

      He spent a lot of his time attempting to explain away the not one, not two, but THREE problems with the anomalous botched trials in India. Why run trials in a third world country anyway? Stupid decision. I'm sure the FDA will be really impressed--NOT. What is BIOD attempting to hide?

      I wouldn't touch this filthy pig with a 10 foot pole!

    • Not talking about $1B in sales (which would clearly set the price much higher than $42/sh)....I'm talking about a potential $1B PURCHASE of BIOD. Didn't read my post very closely, did 'ja?

    • a billion in sales would mean 4x in market value.

      that's 4B in market value.

      i'll leave you to figure out what the share price is for that.

      • 1 Reply to whatdoesheknow
      • 30k shares? Wow. I thought I was top dog on this board with 15k. Anywho, the most interesting thing said in the conference was that of Smartbasal. The company really keeps pushing it don't they? Sanofi's Lantus is a blockbuster with $2B+ in sales yearly but goes off patent in 2014. He goes on to say he knows the drug well and about improving it with Smartbasal? Sounds like sanofi might be interested in that. They need a replacement. They can't lose $2B a year revenue. Biod wants to DOMINATE $20B diabetes market. These mofos are gonna get bought out guys. No big pharma is gonna let them stick around and watch billions and billions in revenue disappear. Buy for $1B now or lose $10B later.

    • Very good report.

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