He must of used CSFB numbers, if their numbers are realistic, Elan with over 460M shares outstanding after FY06 Bond convert, will do what $.60 per share, if that in FY2010, ya ya I know other drugs in the pipeline yada yada yada, On a NPV value not worth $20, heading below $25 soon!!!!!!!!!
Froggie you are wrong:
Long term studies show Antegren to be much better than Remicide. Better efficacy with no neoplasia, as in lymphoma. Can Remicide patients come off steroids? Tysabri has better remission rates and gets its' patients off of the dreaded steroids.
you make me laugh $5Billion in sales, go do some more LSD, It is quite clear that you have done ZERO DD on Elan, your 1st point on Expenses,, Elan stated they would lose $400M in FY05, same run rate as FY04 with special charges, that sounds to me R&D, SG&A are going up, The $460B of notes converting in FY 06 are built into their model, Negative cash flow burn thru FY07, so net interest expense will go up not down. The rest of your comments are out the window, its a big pump pump pump, and their pipeline bites big-time, I just don't have the time talk about all the Crohns & RA drugs coming to market.Several other company's working on ALZHEMEIRS AND BETTER PAIN DRUGS, THEIR PAIN DRUG IS IN A NARROW NICH MARKET. We already know Tysari for crohns does not make the grade when compared to the standard of care remicade, tell me something that I missed? Most Analyst have Tysabri maxed out at $2-3B in sales on MS alone. 475M shares outstanding, just a few trading points and you add billions to its market cap. Have a nice trading day and make sure you due do some DD.
Like Makaleman, I thank you for trying to do a realistic (if pessimistic) analysis of Elan out to 2010.
I've admitted that I haven't crunched the numbers on Elan for a while so I'll do that when I have a chance and end this debate.
In the meantime - letting me guess 20% tax rate cuts me NO slack. You can ignore tax rates across the Eurozone in your model. Transfer pricing ensures that most of the profits will be booked in the lowest-tax country - i.e, IE :-). The glaring difference between Irish GNP and GDP is evidence of this practice by non-EU firms (think software, pharma and other tech).
For now, let's agree to disagree - but if I were you, I'd get my hands on an ELN report from one of the Irish brokers - Ian Hunter at Goodbody's has a target of $42, the Merrion, Bloxham and Davy's guys are pretty good too. So far, they've been better than the US based analysts at teasing out the financials and understanding Elan's opportunities.
The convertables that will swell the float will also put over $200 million to the bottom line.
By full year end in 2010, at least two, and possibly FOUR Alzheimer's moloclonals will be on the market. . Why don't you try to put THOSE sales into your model.
AAB-001, a passive immunotherapy could bring in 10's of billions on an annualized basis. AAC-001, an active immunotherapy (vaccine) could be like a modern Polio Vaccine. YOU figure out the sales on these if you like.
The Surgeon General has said that AD would put a multi TRILLION dollar drain on our healthcare system. How much do you think an effective treatment would bring in?
Also, the hospital drugs alone currently bring in $400 million with only one IND each, where 4 or more could be applied for.
Then add in the fruits of the Drug Delivery unit and their partnerships with Roche, JNJ, Merck etc.
You really need to do some DD on Elan before you make such generalizations about forward looking earnings...
Now show me how smart you really are...
on the up side $30 is the best your going to see, Elan is stuck in a trading range for the next 6-12 months, I will buy at the bottom of the range $22,,,, 22 X 460M shares is $10B in MKT CAP,,,, sell @ $30
<<OH BOY! sell @30.>>>
IF thats how you feel then why don't you just
BUY now and make 15%??
We have seen SO MANY non believers come and
go(pine boxes)from this message board,quit
pissen in the wind,join the team and make
some money,cause you surely are NOT changing
Why are you here??
Are you our white knight??
sitting here in a Singapore hotel room and I can see thru ur shallow analysis:
1. Why would R&D expenses go up? I mean, we have just finished 4 x major P3 trials. We have 1 and maybe 2 P3 on the horizon. Please explain.
2. Debt expense will be up, but drops in 2006 when the $640M convertible is called, giving us 475million shares.
3. $2.5 B in 2010? What are you smoking? They'll be at that in 2007. Look at Enbrel's takeoff for what real ramp-ups can look like. When we get Crohn's next year, and RA in 2007, we'll be moving handily towards $5B in 2010.
Of course, this is IMHO, but you're ignoring the realities (and that is IMHO). Others much more adept than me can do a much better job of dissecting BS.
Good luck with your ELN short - methinks you'll need it.
But, by the way, appreciate you doing SOME work and not doing a basher special with NO supporting information.