sent this email to my wife in FL. hope i copied it right.
i have agonized about what to do with eln for quite a while. here is a post from from someone who is pretty leanred on the eln board . i've decided to risk it all. we are talking about a 100K difference between the rise or the possible fall of eln. so, i'm not going to sell any covered calls till right after the market reopens on 3/9 and it spikes up to 17 +. then and only then will i sell deep in the money covered calls. so, what do you think? go for it? read this article first.
HERE ARE THREE MONDAY SCENARIOS
by: hunglikeahorz (33/M/NC)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 03/04/06 09:27 am
Msg: 938519 of 939206
1) Retail Investors are Fearful and Sell
(Price goes to $12.00 & Big Boys get in cheap)
*** Then there will be a huge transfer of cheap shares from Retail Investors' hands to Institutional Investors. After Tysabri is approved, big boys will own most of ELN shares. And when the report ownership and retail investors find out, it's already too late - ELN pps will be way up.
*** I'm banking on what Creedster say that ELN has never closed at the $11 level (4:00 pm market close) in the past 2 years.
2) Brave Retail Investors Buy a lot, Big Boys wait and see and holds prices
(PPS will go up to $13.20 - $14.50)
MODERATELY OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
*** Tug of war between big boys holding the price of ELN and retail investors pushing PPS slightly up. Realistically - below $15.
3) Some Big Boys Decides to Load up cheap at $12 - $14.50 (pushing PPS beyond $15)
VERY OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
**** If one or two key players suddenly load up 10 - 20 million shares like Fidelity betting on 100% Tysabri approval, then we will see a gap up.
And this is based on what Kang said about Trade volume going up on Monday. In addition, we also have AG Edwards saying HOLD ELN shares, Tysabri return is with certainty. To quote ELN's number one enemy, Krasner, - "Tysabri's return is imminent".
Here, big boys will assume that FDA already has a favorable ruling because they gave priority status to Tysabri's return; FDA already approved Tysabri's redosing to 5000 patients; and FDA extended AC hearing to 2 days to listen to more MS patients who have taken Tysabri.
PLACE YOUR BETS!
I'm also all in. I've gone this far holding ELN. I'm not going to quite just a second away from the finish line and flip quarters. Win or Lose ... it's a fight to the finish for me until I sell my couple of thousand shares at my price (still waiting for Alzheimer vaccines).
Before anybody here sells ELN shares, I would encourage you to watch these MS Patients again who will be OUR fighting voice on March 7 and 8 (see video link below). Please remember, these PATIENTS ARE FIGHTING FOR THEIR LIVES and using tooth and nail TO GET TYSABRI BACK! We can lose some $$$$ but they can lose their lives.
CAN YOU IMAGINE 500 - 1,000 PEOPLE FIGHTING FURIOUSLY FOR THEIR LIVES IN FRONT OF THE FDA AC PANEL?
I can't imagine how difficult it was for them to give up the privacy of their illnesses so they can be videotaped in this sorry state, almost helpless and begging for a better quality of life.
I praise them for showing everyone their illness and desperation to get Tysabri back. Not everyone can do that. These are the heroes of the 1 million MS patients who need a better alternative therapy, where all others fail.
Why do you say you will sell deep in the money coverd calls - do you mean if ELn is 17.5, you will sell 12.5 or 15 calls?? I dont understand, or did you mean something else? I thought you might be selling 20s or higher, not itm ones? Please explain
I guess if the pps is 17.5 and you sell April 15s, they wil go for $3.5-$4, so thats like selling ELN for $18.5-$19 - is that you strategy, to get the pps plus the time value as well?
after a initial spike in pps, i believe there will be some sell off and then eln will be stymied again till we see the 1st qtr. of revenues of tysabri once relaunched.
imo, the short/hedge funds will piss and moan that T's part of the ms market will not be better than 10% and that it will ony be used as a last resort type drug.
eln pps movement always seems to give you a chance to get back in.
i was thinking earlier today to sell deep in the money covered calls and recouping almost all my orginal eln investment. to do that i was contemplating selling the 08 leaps at 15.00 . with a 5.76 avg. on the 8K i have parked, it would have allowed me to take some money off the table without selling the stock. but i've decided to let it ride. i believe 80/20 in favor of a T approval without a black box. i believe T is approved with or wothout a black box at 99/1 in favor.-bucko
ps-sorry for ranting here but yes, i'm rather nervous about this.
". . . i'm not going to sell any covered
calls till right after the market reopens on
3/9 and it spikes up to 17 +. then and only
then will i sell deep in the money covered
Why are you going to sell deep in the money
calls, because you want to be taken out?
What am I missing?
i have 2k on margin at 15.55 . i would like to sell covered calls on these 2k instead of just selling them.
i have 8k bought and paid for. i want to pare down to 4k as my investment in eln is a bit too agressive compared to the percentage of other investments. again, i won't just sell the shares but will sell some covered calls on these also. but if eln at say 18 after approval on 3/26, i'll sell the july 25's or 30's, whatver. but not way to deep on those. 1k for each of my kids in a trust and 1k for my own retirement portfolio when i'm all done. by the way, my kids are 28,26, & 11.
sorry, i don't think i worded my previous post very well.-bucko
My decision was to buy my ticket and take the ride. If the AC gives us a mediocre result and we get approval with a mean looking black box, I'll be ok just so long as the sales ramp up over the next six months or so.
My shares are all paid for in cash so it's not so difficult to watch the world race by. In spite of what Andy and Beth say, if feels a lot more like a roller coaster than a slow train to me, though I do think they are going to look right when we look back on it years from now.