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ID Systems Inc. Message Board

  • ch87ris ch87ris Mar 9, 2011 7:35 PM Flag

    Gaining Traction

    I've followed these guys a long time and I respect Ehrman, not so much Jagid. I do think the acquisition was smart, maybe very smart, although seemed desperate at the time. They seem to have a lot more discipline since Miller came on board with all the cost cutting. I always thought Fausel had the right idea but gone now. I have wondered how that played out. They don't seem to be so up and down on the conference calls now, a little steadier, playing it closer to the vest instead of making promises they can't keep. I was kind of hoping they would issue guidance but if they can't, I'm glad they don't try because they lose credibility. I think AI keeps them in the game and if any of the biggies (rental cars, airport or DOD)come through, this thing could really go. I think one or more of them will, it's just a matter of when. The fact they have their foot in the door on all three is very big. DOD is the wild card and I'm wondering if anybody out there has any clue what's going on there. If you followed the ribbon cutting on Sierra, etc and now Red River, it seems like the Governemnt loves it but it never seems to expand, at least big time expand. Maybe DBTurner or whatever his name is is right and this is all a con........but when you're selling to Walmart and Walgreens, etc, etc, something tells you they have a viable product, they just haven't been able to get the traction. I think they have it now with the new strategy and I think they think it now, if you read between the lines a little. But, I've been fooled by these guys before and I may be again. What does anybody think about the fact they have only purchased 100 k of the 3 mil stock buyback? Bottom line, if they can keep up the last couple quarters, and q1 should be good, this stock could really go in my opinion. It's hard to break into a whole new technology but I ontinue to believe in Ehrman, and I guess you always have to have the attorney..........but I'm hoping Miller's influence helps.

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    • Nice Analysis. My thoughts are that SG&A went up a lot more than expected, but if it is based on commissions for sales that haven't been recognized and D&A from the AI deal, it is ok. This is really a lottery ticket. It is trading at less than 1x EV/ forward sales with a number of really big new customers, and great opportunities in rental car, DOD, and airports. If they can get a few accounts to roll out, I see no reason why we don't get above $10. I am sitting on a ton of profits on IDSY. Had 25k shares at $2.6. Sold 5k yesterday at $5.1 to keep the position size reasonable. While there may be volatility with this name since it has no real coverage or institutional support, I am going to stay long and hope 2011 and 2012 will be huge.

    • Actually they purchase to date 78,000 shares at a average price of $3.82 per share for a total cost of $300,000. As for the car rental agreement, they are very close.

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