Let';s pray that oil tanker rates increase substantially. Somebody is calling for an increase of 20 percent in oil tanker rates. I forget what the source was but I do recall that I saw it briefly on headlines bar on Bloomberg early this morning about 4 am or so. I don't have any idea what the call is based upon.
I am hoping that Japan will spur more growth that requires much greater imports of energy products that can only be brought to the island nation via water transport. I am also hoping that all of Asia improves in terms of the economic outlook. I'm afraid Europe appear hopeless so I don't hope for much there. It would morally wrong to hope for an escalation in the Middle East conflict but there is an atrocious civil war in Syria as I am writing this message that has been going on and getting worse and shows no indication of going away. Russia is threatening to increase arms sales particularly anti aircraft batteries that would likely be intended for Israel which is advanced enough to attack targets in Syria including anti aircraft batteries without being shot down very easily. NATO involvement is highly unlikely even though Turkey is a member. But if Iran gets involved for any reason that would impact the Straits of Humoz and the Persian Gulf and that might make oil tanker rates explode higher. The odds are astronomical but not impossible. Especially since Iran continues to provoke Israel with a nuclear weapons development program. We haven't heard much about such an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities in the press which might indicate that Israel is prepared to attack with the element of surprise perhaps on its side. We just don't know what's happening. But we do know that Syria is heating up. In any event, "hoping" is not an investment strategy. And Asia looks anemic. I'm hoping to be surprised you could say.
pb, tanker rates will slowly rise as the number of ships corrects. There are too many ships and not enough cargo. But ships rust and get scrapped.
As far as the ME situation, there has always been speculation about what might happen in the Strait. I don't think Iran, or anyone, could impact it. The US Navy in very efficient at solving maritime issues.