The co-founders bailed and the stock got hammered. I always view cases like this as a buying opportunity - it's at least worth looking into, right?
While there are many reasons you could argue to buy this stock now, there's 1 problem: Insider selling in 2013. Here's the breakdown:
January 2013 = 85,124 insider shares sold
February 2013 = 51,083 insider shares sold
March 2013 = 44,584 insider shares sold
April 2013 = 166,208 insider shares sold
346,999 sold in 2013 and how many were purchased? ZERO! In April, it was five different insiders selling (I don't know about the other months). The co-founders bail suddenly and insiders have been selling all year... something stinks here. The arguments to buy this stock sound good so investors want to play the upside here but they know something is wrong.... that's why they are buying CALLS, not stock. Of course FIO "reaffirmed guidance", what else are they going to say? You think they'll say "The co-founders left and oh, by the way, we're cutting guidance"? They'd never say that when they're abandoning ship.
For those of you who own the stock, I hope I'm wrong. For those of you who are interested in buying the stock, I'd strongly recommend against it.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I brought this up before the news came out on them only having two customers and said was surprised SEC did not look into this, as it was quite obvious the insiders sold out on the coming bad news. Recently, I have bought back in, during that weakness last week, and the insiders will be partial buyers as well. Still think FIO will be taken over just for the process of flash in storage.
Flynn knew all this months ago. Despite the market taking this as an opportunity to sell, it's much better that he is leaving now than to continue his non proffesionalism in regads to communicating with stockholders. Good Riddance, there is still alot of value to this company without him Anyways
It seems likely that insider selling was in anticipation of the announcement (that Flynn and White are departing) that just brought the stock down to $13 and change. If you had tens of thousands of shares and knew they were leaving and understood the consequences for the stock price you'd sell too.
From today's article on why Flynn and White left:
"Fusion-io's board had been discussing a management change for about six months, the analysts were told."
This fits the timeline and concentration of insider sales.
Insider selling or buying is not necessarily an indication of anything, particular in such small amounts. Published in The Register yesterday this story: 'Former Fusion-io CEO just wasn't that into operations'. Just google it. It's not uncommon for entrepreneurial types to bail when a company reaches a certain stage because they don't have the skills or interest in running a company, just creating it. Your comment about reaffirmed guidance is simply your cynical guesswork and has nothing to do with the known facts. BTW, legal insider trading cannot be based on material non-public information.
To be fair, you do make some valid points and my position of them reaffirming guidance is "guesswork" (though, to be fair to me, any prediction about the future is guesswork). However, you can't just blindly follow what people say even if insider trading is illegal. Many people think rule 10b5-1 rewards management which deceives shareholders. But there's no way they didn't know the co-founders were leaving 2 weeks before the announcement (which is when intense insider selling was occurring). And even if they wanted to sell regardless of the co-founders leaving, they shouldn't have because the co-founders were leaving. I hate conspiracy theories but you can't be naive either.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
CVS had HUGE amounts of insider selling last month ahead of earnings...All the shorts said the stock was going to tank because of the unusual amount of sales Over 400mil shares
The stock went up and CVS beat the street
Insider selling means squat!!!