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FIO Message Board

  • dhfexpress dhfexpress Oct 11, 2013 9:37 PM Flag

    call options of interest

    noticed March 2014 $18's have an open interest of 19,939 which is almost twice the volume of all other call options to date. at an ask of $1.10 this is a gamble of over $2.1 m ....keep in mind FIO must trade over $19.10 before March expiration for these contracts to make $ for whomever pays $1.10 and holds them thru expiration. There is also some strong volume on March 2014 $12's at $3.20 with todays volume of 696 contracts added to 10211 contracts as of yesterday thats over a $3.4 mil gamble and FIO will need to trade over $15.20 for the option holders who pay $3.20 to make $ if held thru expiration.
    Mar 22, 2014 3.20 696 10211 FIO 12.00
    Some serious gambling going on and the big $ is on FIO to win .... 8 trading days till ER....

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    • Just curious. Open interest of calls and puts also includes covered calls and puts. How do you know these weren't covered calls that were sold? I'd be curious how you know the composite of the open interest of 19,939 calls are not covered calls. Regardless of the composite, there will be covered calls within the population of the 19,939 calls, I can assure you.

      For those who "sold open" contracts, that's premium they put in their pockets today and only lose the opportunity to gain beyond $18 if the price goes through the strike price by improved operating results or a buyout.

      I think it's a pretty safe bet FIO won't be at $18 in March by its own inertia. I also doubt a buyout is imminent.

      If anybody knows the composite of the March 22, 2014 $18 calls open interest; I would be appreciative.


      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to kiwimission
      • Kiwi....not sure on that covered call ? That said it sounds like you think the buyer of 12500 call options @1.60 is going to lose his (_|_) ....just out of curiosity why do you think FIO won't get to 18+ by march on its own merit. I seen your other post on why you think it won't be bought out but doesn't it seem plausible the ER on 23rd could likely be better than expected as well,as forecast for 2014. What do you think FIO PPS will be after ER and in March ?

    • People make big bets on stocks all the time, best not to risk money on someone else hunch; you are more likely to hold on to a stock long enough to make money if you know Why you bought it in the first place. 2.1m is small money if you got 10s of M to invest, you can bet that much in Vegas with out too much trouble.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to msutton47
      • I agree and personally dont trade in options much unless to hedge against a long position.
        As for going to Vegas and betting millions ....12500 of the 19939 March $18's were bought buy one high roller at $1.60 a month ago when FIO was in the mid $14 area which was a $2 mil dollar bet giving him the option to buy 1,250,000 mil shrs at $18 so he wont see a dime profit unless FIO goes over $19.60 if held till expiration or goes up enough to point Mar $18's are bidding higher than $1.60 and he finds a willing buyer. This whale is currently down approx $750K on the position. Either he / she thinks a buyout will likely take place at $20 or more or it could be a hedge against a large short position perhaps as there still is a big amount of short interest.
        I would be willing to give 10 to 1 odds that this gambler whomever he / she is will definately be listening to conference call on 23rd ;o)
        from Spet 12th news
        Nearing the halfway mark in today's session, here are the individual equity names with the most call and put buying on optionMONSTER's ActionTracker data system.

        Fusion-io (FIO): An investor bought 12,500 March 18 calls in the small-cap tech stock for $$1.60 against open interest of just 441 contracts, looking for upside in the shares. FIO declined 1.02 percent to $14.49.