History DOES repeat itself for the simple reason that the Fed is the Fed is the Fed.....Crystal balls are worse than useless...they're redundant. When have the axioms of Human Action ever changed? Even Einstein's "revolution" embodies Newton's "revolution" as a "special case" and, in the end, "overthrew" NOTHING but narrow minded stupidity! In the same way a soundly evolving economic theory overthrows NOTHING, but merely extends the range of the applicability of the Axioms of Human Action. The only victim? Human fear and greed ie. the psychology of human stupidity!