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BJ's Restaurants, Inc. Message Board

  • mikemcmanus2000 mikemcmanus2000 May 16, 2012 12:13 PM Flag

    Market Heads Up

    I know board not bery active these days, but I know some of you old timers check in here and there. I just posted this on DDD board (with some minor edits -- hopefully I made enough of those typos/edit corrections to make sense for this post to BJRI old timers)

    Basically, I rarely say this type of thing...but seriously look at stepping aside on your portfolio longs or as good is an adequate hedging strategies (options and other strategies).

    We are very oversold here...but every technical indicator I have on the market is indicating that we have selling pressure. Its actually not spiking at the moment becuse we are oversold and at or near logical resistance on TLT (Treasuries), vix, US DOllar, etc. SO we are seeing a lull here.

    On the other hand I have very good support on the DOW at 12,500 but actually looking at that as a test of support before markets trips another 300 points on DOW (that would get us into sub 1300 level on SPX - say 1270 or 1290).

    I don't think Greece here is the big longer term problem. They are too small - situations like this are often a 'tripping wire' that something larger can happen in something like Spain or Portugal. Right now it appears that investors in Greece and periphery areas of Euro land are trying to take out their investments (you know hide in the mattress stuff). So we aren't seeing a run on the banks here as yet in Greece...but we are seeing early signs that sentiment has moved in that direction in Europe and rolling into other countries. Spain's banking issues are also fueling the fire.

    I see no sense of panic. On the other hand what I'm seeing technically is that we are in a typical bear trend that has a ways to go. So what we normally see in that environment is that blips up are short lived (and often they don't even last a day or so (and frequently just a couple of hours). This is of course the converse of the bull run we saw in later 2011 (and well as several previous bull runs).

    At any rate, its not time to panic here...but I am getting signals that you should start selling any nice blips up you see in the longs you have in your portfolio.

    So now...all that said...just take some reasonable measures here on your portfolio. Yes we should bounce. But technicals right here is that we will test lower levels. So just advocating the unless you have a stock/ETF moving nicely against that grain to the upside...then either step aside when you have profits on longs...also, look at cutting losses on losers ('cause they could steepen) and otherwise take prudent measures to hedge your portfolio as we see how euro-land resolves itself ovr next couple of weeks or so.

    Good luck. Again I see no panic here...but I'm not liking what I'm seeing and we may miss an uptiock or two on a stock we really like, but downside risk is starting to increase significantly. May just works itself out, but better to be cautious here is my input (until we get some confirmation otherwise). -Mike

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