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BJ's Restaurants, Inc. Message Board

  • invest4rest invest4rest Jun 14, 2012 9:38 AM Flag

    Why has growth slowed?

    Only slated for 10 openings this year? They should be on pace to do 15 or 17 this year according to their plan for the last several years. Has something changed?

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    • By the way nuanced, not sure I got my post inserted here properly. Was trying to respond to one of your return posts on PWER (and your subsequent comments on what I said about homebuilders and the like). At any rate, hopefully my previous post I made a couple of minutes ago will stand on its own regarding our previous conversation on PWER and other stocks... Mike

    • Nuanced--

      No problem... Sorry for being absent for so long after that post. Will try to get back -here a little more often...We've had a lot of remodeling going on and many situations here these days complicated our summer...

      Nice uptick I noticed in PWER recently - need to go back and revisit the chart...

      At any rate, I still like FIG, CLNY, perhaps GNW (but not convinced as yet). I have a few others in this area that I'm tracking and will try to post later. I've backed off a bit on homebuilders...but I still like PHM and Fidelity seems to as well.

      In looking at market and the like expecting a significant pullback in many of the previous leaders (including homebuilders). So thinking we are close to a logical topping area now at around 1400 or so on S&P.

      Otherwise, I did notice that some of the Restaurant stocks got some traction recently but haven't charted the group or specific names in last few days.

      Regardless, based on my last look, I still think that they have had there logical run over past couple of years and we should expect further consolidation and/or pull back in coming weeks. BJRI should participate in that broader consolidation (like BWLD, CMG, etc). Perhaps PNRA will fight the tide a bit better. Thinking there a couple of these stocks like PNRA that are doing okay. But still expecting that BJRI won't fight the overall downside in this sub sector.

      Many other sub sectors still doing well, but after many months of nice sector to sector rotation and market trading sideways to up, thinking strongly here that markets will now look to pull back to lower levels unless something breaks very positively (and can be sustained) with Europe bailout and US negotiations over budget. Not expecting much on the US front since the level of hostility is so high and not many statesman left in the political parties in the US.

      But never know we could just see a trip down to 1300 or thereabouts on S&P and get a nice bounce. Just not very encouraged about the fundamental picture given the bickering and whining out there and not sure that Europe plans will pan out in the short to mid term.

      At any rate that is my take...will try to update with sectors that look good. By the way, a really nice mutual fund (on market pullbacks is MMUIX - I think I got the ticker right). A really good fund group (and been studying this and many other funds a lot of late for wife's 401k). Also T Rowe Price Health Sci fund doing well and usually in a tough stock market environment biotech ETS like XBI and specialty funds like T Rowe has do well. So any nice pull backs in these type of funds likely a decent a buy (and essentially its pharma/biotech...AMGN is one to consider on its own...perhaps MRK, PFE too. Think MRK had a good report of late.

      Good luck and will talk at you later. Mike

    • @Mike, off topic

      PWER earnings out today as up big in after hours, cc to follow. Gains will only hold if commentary satisfies.

    • Re: PWER

      Hi Mike. THANK YOU for taking a quick look and for your initial comments on PWER. Yesterday was another significant day up 6% on strong volume closing at the high on otherwise down market day. I continue to accumulate a significant position in the stock from prices below $4. I added some more yesterday. Earnings come out in a few weeks, and the stock may gI've back all of it's gains if they're disappointing, but I think the chart is saying otherwise and my fundamental analysis concurs with this. I think the charts are indicating the stock may be at the early stages of a multi-year uptrend but I am not the expert that you are in chart analysis Anything more you have to add on what you think the charts are saying would be appreciated.

      As for the hoe builders, I have to be honest and say I don't feel I can give you any sort of reliable opinion. The companies you mentioned may be extremely strong, with lots of upside. However without doing hours of research, I won't see the types of fundamental signals I like to see to target certain companies. As part of my investment thesis I like to see certain unique characteristics of the company that imply best-of-breed status as well as protective barriers of entry. For BJRI those characteristics, that we're not obvious to everybody were things like the 80% margins on pizza and handcrafted beer, and the number two revenue per square foot position in the industry behind the cheesecake factory. I also liked the recent significant insider buying by William Tilley and his crew at the time I was establishing my first position. For PWER it is their industry leading efficiency, their rapid accumulation of market share from the number nine player to the number two player in just the last two years, and the unglamorous but pivotal role inverters play in every single solar panel array. Oh, and also there's been some insider buying recently.

      The companies you mentioned may have these sorts of characteristics that for me provide a greater margin for error, but I have not been able to do the hours of research that would probably be necessary to uncover and identify them. The fact that YOU have identified them is significant to me and if I find the time I will certainly let you know.

      All the very best.

    • By the way, also picked up PHM (Pulte Homes) on the pull back also some FIG, CLNY and BZH

    • Re: PWER -- Will do. Its one I've looked at before and liked in past so will look to see if its turning favorably or neutral or what... . I did though just take a quick look and technicals are improving -- see resistance at 4.86 on daily and 5.61 (that is were the 20 ema is on the daily and weekly respectively). See a lot of resistance as it gets into $8 (with $6-7 having some resistance but manageable it looks like). That is a rough take will look to refine this and giive a fine tuned input later. At any rate, I think I like how this shaping up. Otherwise---

      Really nice to here from you. We've been tied up with issues related to Colorado fires, getting a new roof from golf ball sized hail a couple of weeks ago, etc. If you get a chance---

      Would like your quick or perhaps an initial take on some of the home builder and related (what might be the ones with the best fundamentals -- given that some of this is clouded by tax benefits, etc). I'm buying some housing stocks like HOV and BZH. Bought some HOV this morning on pull back to 2.79. Thinking it will make a move like BZH recently...that both will keep going and eventually start to moving up like LEN, DHI, KBH has done. Sector is very bullish here (see XHB chart and contrast to this sector). SO we are seeing some fascinating sector rotation I think -- just seeing too many subsectors doing well. Not sure how well you are attuned to housing sector stocks or whether you are motivated... but seem to remember you used to post on occasion about one of the financial related stocks I think in that area. At any rate, if so inclined would like your take on this area and related subsectors (if you have any ideas...) Otherwise---

      Some more later, will try to stay in touch here on board...have had a lot going on over past 6 months or so - things getting back to normal but still have a few items I'm working on home front (medical, and doing added work around house etc). Mike

    • Dull menu, high drink prices, more competition.

    • Not sure I follow you. The recently opened Waco location was the 6th new location of the year. CEO is quoted in the release stating that they will open as many as 10 more this year. If they hit that number that will be 16 new openings for the year.

34.33-0.12(-0.35%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT