Well let me offer my predication based on the events taking place in this world, and the economic conditions, not to mentions the hurricane season my personal prediction Crude Oil could very easily hit from $150 to $200 by the end of this year, and I believe many commodities will rally very soon lets just wait and see what happens in the very near future good luck to all traders, and everyone in this world God Bless each and everyone in this world.
The first question is, at what point will the support be strong enough to make a bounce possible. Last spring, $110/barrel was a strong point of resistance and I could see $110 acting as a solid support level here. It got around $113 the other day before oil rallied about $3 or so. It will test the $110/barrel soon. IF it does bounce, the highest IMO it would go would be a 62.5% retracement of the 38 point drop, which would be 110+23.75 or $133.75 before it would likely fall again. Using a 50% retracement the number would be $129/barrel and at 37.5%, it would bounce to $124.25, before rolling over. These are the key Fibonacci percentages. Still just a hypothesis.....
My friend my sentiment still remains very strong on the commodities sector, and and yes I still see Crude Oil going towards the $400 in a few years, by the end of this year crude oil might see $200 I'm not changing my opinions at this time, like I've said until this world's situation remains dangerously negative, I think commodities will be a safe haven investment, we all have to hope, and pray that positivity fills this world but at this current times to much negativity exists I think commodities are going to increase from 100% to 600% so I'm not changing my prediction one bit, I'm just hoping, and praying that positivity soon comes throughout this world where everyone can prosper in complete success, I believe positivity will lead to a huge declination in commodities, but until that time comes I'm super bullish on commodities God Bless you.
Depends on what the hell the US decides to adopt as an energy plan. If it is something meaningful that uses every effort, offshore drilling included, it could very well come off around 100 and trade sideways. If they accomplish nothing and want to keep the topic on the table for electuion purposes and do nothing befor ethen, higher we go : ) If I was short I'd be calling pelosi and other politicians demanding action BEFORE THE ELECTION. Instead of posting here the SHORTS SHOULD BE TALKING TO ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT DEMANDING ACTION BEFORE THE ELECTION. give it a shot it'll only help your position :) If your Long well keep posting and don't talk to politicians, hope that its just business as usual in washington, political gains and positioning, towing the party line rather than accomplishing something meaningful to take on what they all agree is an ENERGY CRISIS in a bipartisan manner. I hope they do a bill soon after coming back as I'm not long or short USO and am long RIG (hope to decouple from daily oil price swings on it with a bill as it would drop USO and UP RIG) but in reality I believe they would rather keep it as a difference on which to whine and biatch in commericials about the "other" party when they are both as useless as the "other" one by not doing a damn thing for their BOSSES, THE TAXPAYING PEOPLE, something lost for generations now!
I see many people are disagreeing with my strong buy sentiment on commodities, and I have complete respect for your opinions, and view points, but I shall continue to disagree with those viewpoints for the time being until I see some positive improvements globally, we need the wars, violence, genocide, and the negative geopolitical events to stop, we need to do something about global warming which I believe is a fact, and thank God for Al Gore who is preaching the right message to the world that something must be done quickly about the global warming situation because if nothing is done this world might experience cataclysmic natural disasters of epic proportions that we can't even begin to imagine, and the financial situation is deteriorating rapidly around this planet, the dollars up trend most likely well end very soon, and it will be back to the lower lows, I still believe the USD index is headed towards 42 in the future, so combining all these events I see the prices of Crude Oil somewhere between $150 to $200 by the end of this year, and in a few years it could go as high as $700 plus, but I think it will go towards $400 a barrel, but you never know how high it can go, and when the positive improvements start taking place in this world, which we all hope, and pray will be exceptionally soon, then we will see a massive declination in the commodities prices, and the stocks, and the USD will rally, so the world situations dictate how I feel where the markets are headed towards, and for the time being this world is currently living in dangerous times, I believe commodities at this particular time can have a quick rise upwards, and the gains could go from 100% to 600%, so lets see what happens, but I would not be surprised at all if the commodities start to rally big time towards the upside within the next few weeks, this will lead to massive short covering, I'm just giving my opinions, and we shall all see what happens, if the shorts are right that's great, but if the longs are right please don't be hateful towards them lets all respect each other, and even if we don't share the same view points lets not be disrespectful towards each others view points, like I've always said lets exchange ideas, that way we all learn something from each other, I wish you all good luck, and may God always bless this world.
Crude will hit $55 within the next 12 months and you can set your watch by that.
Just like 1981, much of the demand destruction we've seen over the past 3 years will be permanent.
There's a reason oil went from $40 in 1981 back to $10 in 1991. It happened then, it will happen now. History sorts everything out when speculation has left the building.
I agree.. the longer gas stays above $2.00 a gallon the more opportunity for alternative energy vehicles to hit the road. I know I and several of my freinds would buy one today if we had the option. The world oil play will come to an end in the next ten years. Not that there will be no demand for oil, that's silly, just the comsumption of oil will decline worldwide.
I have made a few hundred bucks betting that oil will go lower since it was at $135 and climbing. Can't aford to bet more since I have a full time job and do not intend to watch the market like a hawk. However with that said, oil will be lower by the end of 08 that ii is now (maybe 90-100) and will continue to trend lower by the end of 09. The worst thing that could have happened to crude is the price rose to 147+ in a very short time. The sudden impace to the wallet has left many people. That is why GM is trying to sell the Hummer division. The majority of cars that will be soil in the coming years will be small, more fuel efficient cars. The price of gas and the relentless climb to 4+ dollars will not be forgotten. Demand for oil, at best in the US will rise slightly over the next few years, however I think the congress will do the right thing and allow more off shore drilling; therefore bringing more supply to market in a few years. As more supply comes online, the price will come down. Also, all the auto makers have made a push into developing alternatives to gas or gas hybrids which will further lower demand. In a decade from now, the US will use less oil that it does today.
I will admit, there is no way of telling what the price of crude will be in a week, much less at the end of the year. However, it's hard to see it hitting $150 much less $200 by year's end. Demand is historically highest during the nothern hemisphere's summer (American driving season) and it couldn't make $150 then.
My prediction is oil will be lower than it is now at the end of the year -- anywhere from $80-$110.