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Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X ETF Message Board

  • bcr10mm bcr10mm May 20, 2009 3:42 AM Flag

    from the FAS board - why FAS will die soon...

    It still blows my mind when I see this person post as if he knew chart-wise what he is talking about.

    So lets take a non-biased perspective. Believe me if there was money to be made in FAS this week, I'd be loaded up. But there isn't. The financials have just completed the biggest run in history. Bigger than 2003, 2001, 1974, 1933,1930 or any other rebound example you can come up with.

    But the party is over. FAS had the biggest return of any 3x ETF in history (+550%) but the party is over. There are no seconds.

    How do we know its over? Because DOW Transports and NASDAQ have broken under MA20 and are leading all other indexes down, and fast. All the banking indexes are teetering on the MA20, closing with a red candle on a friday. They will break their MA20's on monday, and the selling will increase. There is always a correction, and this is no exception.

    Looking at the UYG chart (FAS's 2x ETF cousin)...we see a double top on the MACD which is up in the stratosphere. Last time this happened was September 2008, when the financials promptly went on to shed 40% of their value over the subsequent few weeks.

    These 3x's go down much faster than they go up. You watched FAZ go $115 to $5, probably very happy to be on the other side, never expecting to be in that boat one day with FAS. Hammondkeys has been charting an uptrending channel...and that's fine, because it worked the last 2 times. However, all trends come to an end, and he's ignoring the warning signs that are all over the place (NASDAQ, DOW Transports and Real Estate under MA20, and all bearish ETFs putting in breakout formations). In fact, he is ONLY focusing on a trendline that, by some assessments is already broken. No good chartist will ignore big warning signs in order to cling blindly to his position.

    Mark this post, because I guarantee you that playing with FAS in the $8-$9 range, is playing with fire. You may be able to pick up FAS end of this week at $5, and perhaps the week after at $3-$ would be a "buy" there...and it would take a small dip in $RIFIN to bring that about. Lets say RIFIN takes a 10% dip over 3 days next week and BAM, you have FAS = $6. Heck, even after FAS hits $3, the financials can still be considered to be in a "bullish trend" with a normal correction in place.

    For those staying in FAS to brave the storm, all I can say is, set some close stops because if you panic and hold through the will find your profits and money eroding just as fast as FAZ did from $115 to $5.

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