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Boston Scientific Corporation Message Board

  • jacksorbetter41s jacksorbetter41s Oct 20, 2005 11:16 PM Flag

    JNJ's analysis

    The AP had this to say today about JNJ's analysis of DES trials.

    "The results were achieved using a so-called "meta-analysis" of data, a statistical technique that is often questioned when applied to clinical trials as critics claim the analysis produces suggestive rather than definite results."

    It appears that JNJ's spin machine has begun to sputter.

    Taxus continues to win the DES wars earning WW $50M more than Cypher last Q, even though only Cypher was sold in Japan. A BSX mouthpiece has said marketshare is growing in the USA, and Liberte OUS should help the cause.

    It's not where you've been, it's where you're going.

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    • evry day a new identity but the same tired old posts .

    • Don't believe in meta-analysis!! No statistically powered, this only for the Media and not for analyst and even not for investors:)
      1.The TLR (restenosis) is lower in TAXUS IV. (3% 9mo FU) than in any Cypher trial.
      2. LL (Late loss) is important only in small vessel (if it's not clear I'm ready to explain this) in small vessel group 0.17mm by Taxus and 0.32mm in Cypher group.

    • You must have missed some of the news lately.

      Trials reported on at the TCT show that Taxus is superior to Cypher, especially in those hard to treat diabetics.

      JNJ got it's hand slapped for using single center trials, while BSX was applauded for their fine efforts to get Docs the info they need.

      One of BSX top dogs reported that DES market share grew each month of Q3.

      DES Liberte was released OUS to rave reviews where BSX is now, as I write, just like last Quarter, gaining market share. Everyday Docs get to try the much easier to deliver, better Liberte Des.

      It's not where you've been, it's where you are going and your thinking seems to have missed the bus.

      Then again, it is obvious you work for JNJ and you're scared. And spinning..... "BSX is getting their butts kicked" that from a company that can't, after almost 20 months, get to parity with Taxus, even after a recall and even after all the hoopla about having the best stent? Even though BSX has gotten their butts kicked by Wall Street their DES has been a winner since the day it was launched. And that's not spin. Wall Street is begining to get it. Hope you do also, could make you some money.

    • It appears to me that the JNJ spin machine is sputtering. Latest results indicate Taxus is better and that will filter into more sales. The tide is slow turning. BSC must not just stay the course, they need to agressively go on the offense. The truth does not always prevail.

    • Hey Jacks, long time no see. Glad to see you back in style, putting it to the man (JNJ).

      I am long VRSN at the moment as my biggest position, looking at an AMZN short for next week (long puts) possibly. Earnings event and all that. I see AMZN priced right now for perfection. They better deliver a haymaker like GOOG did or people will be disappointed. Not sure if they baked in a haymaker...

      Long VRSN, considering short AMZN. and LONG BSX of course. Actually long JNJ too...via GDT that I bought at $62.

      • 1 Reply to bookemdano9
      • Hi Dano, the party moved to a new location, boring, too many shorts here.

        I'm feeling good about the place tho, it's gettin' it's groove back. All we need are some Doctor jokes to get the party started.

        Here's a secret, just don't tell. I'm thinking Credo is Blunder. I should have realized he would have had another name on the JNJ board but I never gave it a thought... I haven't nailed him, woman's intuition wise, but he'll out himself, always does.

        What do you think of JNJ? They really seem to be slipping to me. I'm finding the politics of this Gdt deal a mystery, it makes no sense to say we are looking at things publically. That appears to be a signal that they aren't going to pay full price but why mention it, why not just renegotiate if they think they can. I buy and sell real estate. I can't imagine a strategy where that announcement works. Is it a trial balloon before the announcement that they have ALREADY renegoiated the deal? A way to help savy share holders get out before a much lower price offer/acceptance?

        Speaking of the JNJ/GDT deal, did you read about the big snake in Fl (anaconda, I think) that tried to eat a big gator? They both died. True story.

        Which reminds me, do you read Carl Hiaasen? He has a warped sense of humor too.

    • Cypher worldwide sales Q3 656 million
      Taxus worldwide sales Q3 602 million

      • 1 Reply to bridgeofsighs2001
      • I used this quote to get Cordis figure...

        from 10/18
        "Cypher sales, at $347 million for the quarter, were boosted by increased acceptance of drug-eluting stents, which was the key contributor of overall growth outside the U.S., Darretta said" ('growth outside the US' made me think that was a WW number)

        BUT, big but, I see that the number I was using for Taxus from the BSX press release was 403M and that represented US sales.

        So, I guess in the US BSX took in 50M more than JNJ, which is to be expected since BSX has the greater marketshare. I did find BSX having WW sales of 601M Q3 but couldn't find WW Cypher Q3 numbers for JNJ. Where did you find them?

        What I've learned.... Add not posting when sick with fever to not posting after 2am. I obviously didn't think straight, bc I had the 601# in my notes as WW sales for Taxus. What I hope you've learned is that I'm not in the industry or I would have had a rough idea what WW sales should come in at. I really am the housewife/mother I say I am. (or an evil, twisted spinmiester corporate plant who gets paid really well to do this)

        Glad for the correction, appreciate the lack of wiseass. It could have been pie in the face time.......

        ps, Do you know how much Cyphers Japanese sales were? That's the hunt that started this whole thing?

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