So it looks like this leadless defibrillator is going to be approved in the U.S. by the FDA. The device just went through panel. Only once in 15 years of following this stuff can I recall ever seeing the FDA go against it's own panel of advisor. It is allowed to do that but it is a very rare occurence.
So let's break this down as to where we are at right now on this. (Here is the link to today's press relaease)
Worst case scenario. (Rare to small possibility in light of today's news of the 7 to 1 vote by the panel for approval)
FDA does go against it's own panel of it's advisories and denies approval. BSX has $150 million already invested in Cameron. The device already has CE mark approval (which is equivalent to our FDA) and is selling in Europe. I believe that BSX gets that company for that $150 million and unless they sell a ton of these in Europe would never pay Cameron anymore money.
Most likely scenario
Cameron gets FDA approval then BSX gives them another 150 million bring the total paid so far to 300 million. Then depending on how well the device sells and generates revenue BSX pays more as the volume of sales increases over the next 6 years.
Best case scenario
FDA approval happens and they sell like hotcakes. In that case as the revenue gates are hit through the next 6 years the total that BSX would ever pay would be 1.35 billion over that time frame. So basically Cameron would start paying for itself over time.
Very interesting business deal. I like it.
Here is the link that describes the original deal between Cameron and BSX
The news on Cameron last night was great. Your whole scenario of a potential for a non-approval is unnecessary. At 7-1 this will definitely get approved!
I have held BSX for over a year at this point. My average price per share is $5.55. I have 80,000 shares. Nothing has budged this stock, so I wouldn't be surprised if this news did nothing. From my prior posts it is clear that the founders of BSX don't care about price per share, shareholders, and their very own investment. We will see what happens today. If we go up significantly on this news, it will be a first.
I agree with you. I do not see this as a huge driver of the stock. I could be wrong. I hope I am. I definitely do not see last nights developments and panel results as a negative though. Or the purchase of Cameron as a negative, as some on this board have tried to claim. They tried to claim BSX just laid out 1.35 billion. That is so far from the truth.
If BSX does go up today I would think that this news was only the catalyst. I think BSX is undervalued by many measures. I would attribute a rise in stock price too many different things not just this news.