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Linktone Ltd. Şti. Message Board

  • fwu26 fwu26 Mar 10, 2010 3:09 PM Flag

    4Q09 Guess estimates

    I am just trying to estimates how 4Q09 is going to look like here.

    As of Sept 30, 09

    Balance Sheet

    (Cash + AR -Total Liabilities) / Shares Outstanding

    (97.15+26.96-11.25) / 42 = 2.68 Per Share

    Current stock price:$1.80

    $2.68 - $1.80 = 0.86

    0.86 x 42 Million Shares = $36.42M

    If we lose 36M, our current asset will equal to current stock price

    Income Statement

    3Q Revenue: 13.34M
    3Q Cost of Revnue: 8.19M
    Variable expense is 61% of Revenue

    3Q Revenue: 13.34M
    3Q Selling Admin or Fixed Expense: 4.70M
    Fixed Expenses 35% of Revenue

    If 4Q Revenue (Guessestimates - Feel free to plug any numbers here): 8M
    Variable expense is (61% x 8M): 4.9M
    Fixed Cost 4.7M

    Loss -1.6M

    We got 36M to go...

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    • Good 4Q09 and 1Q10 (as of Mar 17, 2010) for KONG! The new policy on SMS doesn’t seem to have that much impact.

    • If KONG’s SMS revenue expected to be lowered by 20%-25%, then I assume LTON will have the same impact and 80% of 7.4M of 3Q’s SMS revenue should be around 5.9M for 4Q09 SMS revenue. Everything else should be constant or even better due to holiday seasons in 4Q. Total revenue should be around 12.3M plus interest income 650K, if KONG’s projection is correct we should still have another profitable quarter.

      KONG’s PR Summary - Under the guidance of China Mobile, wireless value added services (WVAS) that are embedded in handsets will be required to introduce additional notices and confirmations to end-consumers during the purchase of such services. These new policy changes are expected to potentially significantly reduce the number of service providers in the market in the coming months, which may benefit more established service providers, such as the Company, over the longer term.

      LTON and KONG should have enough resources and technical skills to adopt the changes, which may benefit the future.

    • Thank you for this very clear and organized breakdown. much appreciated.