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Exelon Corporation Message Board

  • glisteninglabia glisteninglabia Sep 20, 2013 10:14 AM Flag

    why the plummet?

    Why does this stock have these inexplicable collapses where, on any given day and without any apparent news, it just absolutely soils itself? I mean, look at the chart...#$%$? From the opening level it's just puked a solid 2% for no reason at all. This stock is seriously a horrible investment. Ever since Obama's Cap n Trade failed, it's been in a 3 year bear market where every single bounce should be sold. Sadly, all I ever do is buy into weakness, when what I should be doing is Sell every single pop. It's down around 30% from where I thought it represented value ...HA!! What a fool I am. What a waste of life it is to follow this depressing miserable company...the CEO clearly has ZERO regard for shareholders and does absolutely nothing to try an get the share price up.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • The way it jumped after the drop suggests that there is significant buying interest below 30. So what I am doing is - around a code position, buy around 30 and sell at 31.

    • Here is my thought process on why this could be dropping:

      No new coal plants - bearish for coal prices - lower production costs for coal plants - lower electricity prices (at least temporarily). Entergy is also down along with many non-nuclear utilities (IE First Energy). So if it's any consolation, whatever is afflicting Exelon is afflicting everybody.

      But long-run, Obama has reduced the threat of new entrants and is setting us up for a 2005-like situation in a few years where the country runs out of spare capacity. And natgas prices have broken $5/mmbtu and EXC is paying down debt.

      This will start to get priced in at some point and sentiment will shift, just as it has done for Exelon before.

      If we don't declare bankruptcy in the meantime, and we don't need to issue too much equity in the meantime, Exelon will be in much better shape in ten years, thanks to Obama.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I too am feeling a tad depressed, but we need to cheer up. I recommend that you read "Cold, Hungry, and in the Dark", by Bill Powers. This should make you feel a little more confident in the long term prospective. Nuclear is really the only stable, dependable, and economical source of electric power in the long run. For the meantime, collect the dividends and be happy.

      • 1 Reply to livermore923
      • Thanks for the response. Problem is, that's the rationale I used to buy the stock when it was 40, and back when the dividend was awesome!
        I think the fracking scene has been such a profound game-changer that we may have to wait for the full cycle of 'low prices increased demand higher prices", in other words wait for gas prices to go back up before any nuclear-powered advantage gets priced back into EXC. Right now, it's just in a downward spiral of horrible circumstances....not helped by an economy that is still far from a proper recovery, not helped by relative cheapness of other sources of energy, not helped by a complacent management team that has no fire under its #$%$ to deliver shareholder value...and also not helped by bond yields having gone from 1.75 to 2.75, which eats away at the magnitude of the relative attraction that a 4% dividend would otherwise have offered.

        Why the heck can't we have some flukey out of left field headline about Warren Buffet taking a huge stake in EXC, or something like that?!!?

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