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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

  • goldpermabull goldpermabull Oct 9, 2011 6:34 AM Flag

    Some perspective, and the big picture

    Yearly revenues for RIM:

    1997 - 12 million
    1998 - 33 million
    1999 - 47 million
    2000- 85 million
    2001 - 221 million
    2002 - 294 million
    2003 - 306 million
    2004 - 594 million
    2005 - 1.3 Billion
    2006 - 2 Billion
    2007 - 3 Billion
    2008 - 6 Billion
    2009 - 11 Billion
    2010 - 15 Billion
    2011 - ??
    2012 - ??
    2013 - ??
    2014 - ??
    2015 - ??
    2016 - ??
    ... You get the point.

    Ironically, the stock is currently trading where it was in 2004 when RIM had only a little more than 1 million subscribers, had revenues of only 594 million, and earnings of 51 million for the whole year.
    The years before that subscribers were in the "thousands" to hundreds of thousands and it wasn't until only 7 years ago that RIM surpassed the 1 million subscriber base. Margins in 2004 were 45%, however in RIM's previous transition period in 2002 and 2003, margins were from 28% to 35%, having fallen from 43% in 2000. It's called fluctuation of business cycles and concurrently margins have always fallen during a major company refresh and transition to higher end products.

    When the iphone was released in 2007, RIM had 3 billion in revenues for the entire year, had a total of 8 million subscribers and earned 382 million for the entire year of 2007, or 486 million before income taxes.

    As RIM is now preparing for their new phase of growth, going through a transition period with clearly some mistakes, just as Apple, IBM and Cisco have made along the way, their margins are going slightly lower once again as they did in 2003 for the next product cycle rebuild and push. The PlayBook is a powerful device. QNX is the most fluid and seamless OS I have used or experienced to date or that is out there, but the PlayBook was not ready as we all found out after it was released, because of NO native SDK and not enough apps. They're making the transition now fluidly and if you don't know "who" is at the helm of this now, then you don't deserve to know the details because you haven't done your dd.

    It's funny, ironic and sad to me that investors who post here, and in general, have such a small, narrow and macro view of the big picture, treat the global smart phone and everything else emanating from that as a short term fix, or that a small window of time determines everything as to what is ahead. The extreme negativity surrounding RIM from both media and analysts, not to mention bloggers who likely don't even have any kind of respectable education, or much knowledge at all for that matter, is only being fed by managements current mistakes, learning curve and transitioning to a higher and more efficient global platform, and one that is truly "Blackberry".

    Earnings will return in huge numbers over the years ahead, as shorts and bashers scratch their heads, trying to find their inner truth and soul. I doubt many of them even have that.

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    • moving the goalposts again? you've been making this same post for the last 3 years.

      every company is sequentially making more money year-over-year. welcome to the smartphone space. but feel free to add in slimming margins and missing already lowered expectations on their own guidance.

      your entire post is full of conjecture and forward-looking best case scenarios.

      amazing how RIMM longs are more bullish than the CEO's themselves. you know, the guys who over the day-to-day ops of te company.

      there will be no turnaround and you know it.

      • 6 Replies to stonecoldwellsfargo
      • RIMM is not PALM. RIMM will be around 5 years from now, as strong or stronger. I don't know why shorties on this board seem to think there can only be 1 smartphone manufacturer.

      • RIMM will not disappear - it has too much penetration into business and government. Plus they are growing in developing economies like India and China.

        The real question is: what are people willing to pay for this stock? That will determine where the bottom is.

        RIMM will be around 5 years from now, and will be as strong or stronger than it is today.

      • RIMM will not disappear: it has too much penetration into business and government. Plus they are growing in developing economies like India and China.

        The real question is: what are people willing to pay for this stock? That will determine where the bottom is.

        RIMM will be around 5 years from now, and will be as strong or stronger than it is today. There will be more than one smartphone manufacturer, there is no reason to assume that a company like APPL or GOOG will driver all competition out of this market.

      • RIMM will not disappear - it has too much penetration into business and government. Plus they are growing in developing economies like India and China.

        The real question is: what are people willing to pay for this stock? That will determine where the bottom is.

        RIMM will be around 5 years from now, and will be as strong or stronger than it is today.

      • RIMM will not disappear: it has too much penetration into business and government. Plus they are growing in developing economies like India and China.

        The real question is: what are people willing to pay for this stock? That will determine where the bottom is.

        RIMM will be around 5 years from now, and will be as strong or stronger than it is today. There will be more than one smartphone manufacturer, there is no reason to assume that a company like APPL or GOOG will driver all competition out of this market.

      • RIMM will not disappear - it has too much penetration into business and government. Plus they are growing in developing economies like India and China.

        The real question is: what are people willing to pay for this stock? That will determine where the bottom is.

        RIMM will be around 5 years from now, and will be as strong or stronger than it is today.

    • 2012 is RIM's turn around time with the strong foundation to build upon and monetize the 100 million plus subscribers and record sales. Just watch.

    • Part 1

      Wow, this is a great post, because even a major bear like me needs to consider what this poster is saying, because he expressed his opinion in carefully worded, educated manor.

      That being said, the thesis is completely wrong, and this poster is clearly not keeping his ear close enough to the ground in terms of what users are wanting, and expecting in terms of a smart phone.

      We've gone past the days of needing a physical keyboard. At first, people hesitated because they had never used an on screen keyboard, but everyone has since taken a deep breath, and realized they are just as good.

      • 2 Replies to josemargarita81
      • I'm seeing more and more people leave BB for any other phone. People still love their BB's dont get me wrong, but I'm seeing diehards, finally decide to change.

        Then you have BBM, which users seem to love, but it appears to be the only saving grace besides good work email, which because of blackberry old way of handling emails, you have the outage you see today.

        The "growth" of this Canadian company has been amazing, as you've pointed out, revenues have grown steadily each year. The stock price at one point was $150.

        Today it's trading at $24. Why is that? Is the market being completely irrational like March 2009? No, it isn't. Lots of companies are being valued fairly in todays market.

        So why the massive decline is stock price? Why would a hot stock all the sudden lose all it's mojo?

      • I liken this to tall pines, several of which I can see out my window.

        They are SO impressive when they reach maturity. But they're actually as weak as they are majestic. The "good Lord," if you will lets a handful get to a size where they can hold their own in Rockefeller Center next to skyscrapers.

        What isn't obvious to city-dwellers is that this is the benign equivalent of putting a pet dog to sleep when s/he nears 20.

        Back to RIM - it didn't HAVE TO BE, this coming apart at the seams! - but there's no doubt that it's tougher to grow at 20% when you've gotten to be RIM's 2009 size than it was back in 2004, say.

        But compare Apple and RIM or Amazon and RIM or Oracle and RIM - the list goes on, but not all that far.

        Everybody at RIM recognized that you can't coast if you're a tech company.

        Those other companies recognized that "king of the hill" is a target, just like those tall trees routinely get felled by lightning strikes. RIM's brass mistook Gen. 2 or 3 of phones for a fad or a toy. If/when you make a mistake THAT BIG, you risk going the way of Palm.

        The die probably isn't cast, but with every passing day with 4 pathetic hands on the ship's wheel, it gets harder to see how this (RIM) could have an Act V much different from Palm's.

        Fair or foul, the electric car didn't "make the cut" back around 1910 or 20. That's the system we've had, and we've had it for at least 100 years - the winners become IBM's and the losers can be seen at the Smithsonian.

        The original poster has his head screwed on, ... but it's those future years which he assigns "???" to in terms of revenues. How very right!!!

        Nobody knows - I certainly don't pretend to! But his implication that each one will be substantially larger than the one above it ... just doesn't compute. It's not just shorts and herdish analysts who feel this way - it's pretty much anybody with eyes and ears. One of the later posters in this thread said, "Who knows what P/E RIM deserves at this point?" ... That's true, but the REAL problem is that earnings visibility has gone up in smoke. The 2 or 3 downward earnings revisions this year would have taken the stock down to 30 or 40. But it's gotten to 20 because people ARE looking 12-36 months out, and they can definitely see Palm II as a distinct possibility. If you assign a 30-50% probability to a stock getting below 10 (for good reason) in that short a span, ONLY rumors and/or someone overpaying crazily for the company can keep it above 20.

    • Wow, talking about stock investing! RIMM had negative earning growth of 50% just last quarter. So how much p/e you are going to attach to a company with such a lousy shrinking rate? Stock investing is all about futures, not about the past. Got it? I am so surprise there are so many dreamers who are so attached to the stocks with so little hope. RIMM is done, history! No way out! It can't compete with apple and android phones. you guys are still living in your dream while stock is on it's way to single digits in next years or two. Face it!

      • 2 Replies to stockgangster
      • I think you are loco señor. The mexican people love the Blackberry, we love to type on the best keyboard in the world, other phones try to match it but it never feels like the Blackberry. The new Blackberry now releasing in Mexico is an art of sheer beauty, thin, sleek and my hermana's, oh, they just all is of what they talk about. I think in your investment community they are trying to destroy the stock because they want the Apple to win the race, but the Apple not stand a chance in Mexico. People may think we are dumb, pero estamos muy inteligente mucho más que la gente estúpida como ustedes se dan cuenta.

        Is this why the people of your country protest the wallstreet? Do they control and manipulate the stocks?

    • This is still the best post I've read. People like Joel ask why if Blackberry subscribers are increasing at such a rapid rate, why did earnings decline this last year. Anyone breaking down the numbers can do the math. They released the PlayBook prematurely when it wasn't ready, the investment into this failure caused a short term set back, however, in the big picture it will be a small glitch as RIM gets back on track.

      I personally don't see the PlayBook as competition to the iPad. The iPad is essentially a laptop computer for home without a keyboard but a touch screen instead. The PlayBook is a mobile device that is evolving into something most yet don't understand.

      • 1 Reply to megaboxo
      • <I personally don't see the PlayBook as competition to the iPad. The iPad is essentially a laptop computer for home without a keyboard but a touch screen instead. The PlayBook is a mobile device that is evolving into something most yet don't understand.>

        In one breath you acknowledge that the playbook was an inferior device and launched orematurely. However the playbook ( also known as QNX) is what Rim has gambled it's entire future earnings ion. The only difference is that that it will be smaller and have phone capabilities.

        Put very simply, RIM is showing you very clearly how viable it's future revenue stream will be by how they are supporting, polishing and enhancing the playbook. The entire stock market, and even the most diehard RIM fans don't like their chances based on what they have seen thus far.

        The same reasons the playbook has failed is the same reason QNX phones will fail. ( if they ever reach market before RIM burns its cash)

    • Bump!

    • There are over 45 million active users on Blacberry's Facebook page and it's been growing by leaps and bounds over te last six months.

      http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=2254487659&sk=wall

      Downloads od Blackberry App world is increasing daily. One outage and Blackberry users go insane, can't love without their Blackberry's. I guess we know why Blackberry users are considered Crackberry's.

      But Bashers say this is a dying company. The facts say otherwise. I hope there's a big pullback from all the bashing. I want back in, but want to wait for a nice pullback. Will wait patiently for the right time.

      • 1 Reply to loscapucha
      • <There are over 45 million active users on Blacberry's Facebook page and it's been growing by leaps and bounds over te last six months.>

        There were 70 million Napsters users too when it was free. Oh, Facebook is free too.

        <Downloads od Blackberry App world is increasing daily. >

        This is RIM's weakest asset and you spin it off as a positive? Puhleeze!

        <But Bashers say this is a dying company. The facts say otherwise. >

        The facts say RIM is company pushing dying tech. No innovation. No ecosystem. No PC software experience. No developers. Nothing.

        RIM is a pager company that got lucky with one trick and milked it for a decade.

        The cow just dried up.

    • Finally a post that makes sense, best I have read on this board.
      I get so tired of the usual ********, so refreshing to read an intelligent argument for a change. Kudos to you!!!

    • Interesting how everyone says the iphone and Android is killing RIM but since these phones were released, RIM has had its strongest growth its ever had. Hmm. I guess there are more people in the world then people thought.

    • Good post Gold. This brings back alot of memories. I remember buying RIM the first time in the summer of 2001 and being a bit early on the call. When companies are in transition, it is always hard to find that right point to jump in. And no doubt the challengers this time are more formidable and the challenge itself tougher with the anti-RIM campaign in full swing. But they also now have better tools at their disposal with QNX, large subscriber base and strong balance sheet and a more seasoned management team. The short-term focus of the public markets always provide opportunities for those who can listen beyond the immediate noise.

      • 1 Reply to toinvestor21
      • Well said toinvestor... it's still extremely early in the game. It's an ever evolving process and the negative campaign against RIM has been going strong for a few years now. Ironically, management fell right into the trap of the negative perception that was created... but I know things have changed. They haven't been more focused or in tune with both their mistakes and mis-steps, which again, ironically, will only make them that much stronger going forward. It's ultimately a humbling and healthy process for long term growth that will be much greater than it would have otherwise been without some traumatic failure and self introspective analysis along the way. I'm more confident in RIM going forward now than I've ever been. I'm a long term investor though, and most here seem to be more interested in short term.

        The reason I posted that data was to show the big picture. The "forecast" for a slow down or to be killed by Apple, Microsoft, or whoever is counter intuitive to the reality of the smart phone industry and developing technology of RIM as a whole, as it's always been. People seem to forget RIM's roots and how they became what they did in the first place. Steve Jobs was always fascinated with the Blackberry, his artistry and vision took what RIM had and recreated it with iOS in a way that Mike may have taken for granted. May? He clearly did. They are getting back to their roots of innovation and with you know who now on board, maybe most don't know yet? The RIM we've seen the last few quarters is about to reverse itself in a major way over the next few quarters and beyond, "in my humble opinion" lol! :)

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