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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

  • worst_fckn_board worst_fckn_board Dec 29, 2011 3:21 PM Flag

    Bull and Bear case

    One could make a bull and bear case for this stock.

    Cheap valuation: $6B EV including 1.3B cash and 0 debt, Forward PE < 5.

    Takeover chatter

    Valuable IP

    Declining earnings and estimates

    Possible flawed business plan

    Takeover chatter

    I put the takeover chatter in both the bull and bear camp because it can cause sharp spikes followed by sharp declines. The question is whether any of it is true or just wishful thinking by recent longs. Takeover hype is bad for a stock when it isn't true. That said, the takeover potential makes this stock a much more risky overnight hold if you're short than if you're long.

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    • They skipped 4G because of form factor, they would have to increase the size of the iPhone along with a much better battery. I believe they dropped the iPhone 5 launch for the same reason. They are caught in a bad place, they can't produce a next generation (say 2010 and beyond product) unless they make the phone bigger.

      AAPL could really make use of RIMM technology ... the list is huge. RIMM has proprietary networking for email and compressed data, two great reasons for it to sell at $ 30.00 alone. The BB Bold 9900 is a killer phone but combine it with their PB and what a package for business. HDMI out cable to present wonderful displays, AAPL.lac can't do that.

    • really? I guess companies out there just have $15 billion in cash sitting in a box ready to buy a crap device company that is losing market shares, burning cash with no directions as where to go next year. so they can take this company over to spend billions more to compete with apple, HTC, samsung, HPQ, motorola, Google, nokia...etc. yeah does that even make any sense?

      • 1 Reply to happy2daz
      • Excellent post happy…

        The longs are missing the point that RIMM has missed their window of opportunity when the smart phone business was an un-crowded market. Instead of continually redefining their product in more innovative ways they got fat and happy and let competitors take market share in leaps and bounds. And with the likes of the ones you mentioned in your post, they have a tremendous task ahead of them that quite frankly…they will not be able to achieve. It is totally inexcusable that they have delayed significant releases until the 2nd half of NEXT year.

        The talking heads can pump “patents” and “subscriptions” all they want…but at the end of the day, their competitors have “eaten their lunch” and any company thinking of a takeover will pay a premium for nothing but crumbs.

        Oh yeah….and this book value crap…how’d that “book value” based on “the real estate alone” work for SHLD.

        See you in single digits soon.

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