“We are growing more cautious on RIM as we leave CES and approach the launch of BlackBerry 10 devices later this month,” Long writes in a research note. “While BB10 should be a meaningful improvement, we are not expecting the new phones to stem market share losses. We expect further pressure with BB7 products as low-end Android products ramp. On the services side, we are concerned about both subscribers and ARPU. We are modeling one million fewer BB subs each quarter, which may be too optimistic. We also believe the change in Service business model will lead to a more aggressive ARPU drop.”
In short he thinks the stock in the next few months is going to be driven by the reaction to BlackBerry 10 products, “which we don’t expect to be positive.” Over the intermediate term, he adds. “falling service revenues may be more negative for the shares.”
BMO Capital Markets reaffirmed their market perform rating on shares of Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) in a research note released on Friday morning. They currently have a $12.00 price target on the stock, up from their previous price target of $8.00.