BB needed wow, did pretty good. Ok so wow would take the stock to $200
I disagree with pretty good. It's hands down the best phone on the market now. So this will easily take bb to over $50 this year. All the multiples are a joke. Stock should be $25-30 now and would be without massive manipulation from shorting and options games. But when the profits begin next qtr, then they can't do this bs anymore and the stock will soar. $25 by March $40 by August and $55 by November. Hold tight longs. The fun is just beginning
To be clear I am long and think the z10 looks decent and will find a too niche especially from business users. But "hands down the best phone on the market"? Please. The phone barely matches specs of my Galaxy S3 (same CPU, 2gb ram), which I've had for 7 months now since the Verizon release (its has been out over 8 months on GSM/international networks). The battery is actually quite a bit worse, 1800 vs 2100mah on the S3. Screen is also not as good (quality, not talking about size, which is also a little on the small side).
Z10 is better than the Apple phone, sure, but that's not a high bar to reach. The micro HDMI is nice, the removable battery and micro SD are clearly superior to Iphone and some Android phones (not S3, I have removable battery, and 32gb internal and 64gb micro SD, 96gb total.. For over SIX months now!).
And these are phones that have been out 5-8 months, and Z10 won't be released in the US for yet another month. In March we will see the next generation Android phones begin to arrive (HTC M7, Galaxy S4, Google/Motorola X-phone, to name a few), as well as the next Apple phones nearing release.
And Microsoft and Nokia, for their part, meanwhile are pushing hard.
I do think BB10 will be successful compared to Win8, and like I said, it is decent, compared to last years competition, and can find a niche among business users thanks to some neat software features (Balance). US release of 150 on contract and it will sell enough to keep BBRY afloat, maybe the stock around 14-16.
But this market moves fast (other than Apple anyway). Google X-phone (probably July release) will likely be the phone of 2013. So will BBRY have an updated BB10 phone ready to correct the X10 shortcomings, available within 5-6 months max in order to stay relevant? Long term investors better hope so. But with the current phone not even available to many for another month+, its not looking great. Their track record is terrible. It is good they waited for BB10 to get some polish before forcing a release, but it is pretty late. This phone a year ago would have blown people away. Even 6 months ago would have been good. Now, it is just decent.
This is why then stock dropped so hard from 18 to 12. I underestimated how far behind RIMM would be with this release. I expected they would have things in order for a US release around mid Feb or at least during Feb which would have been great timing between any major competition releases. Now even if it comes March 1, HTC M7 will be here. End of March S3 will be close and talked about everywhere. And then approaching Google I/O, Xphone will be all the talk.
I'm not going into much software stuff here, this is long enough already. BB10 has a short window, and if they release in US by _early_ March at 150+contract, can probably sell a couple million over the next 6 months and keep BBRY afloat as they try to figure out software licensing, possible hardware sale, or hopefully an X10 2.0 with slightly larger screen (less bezel), larger battery, better camera, 32-64gb internal storage, and software tweaks and updates, and more better apps, that will compete with 2013 phones, instead of 2012.
Articles saying BB10 did decent, not fantastic, are spot on.
The stock is still a couple dollars low short term.