The UK has approx 63 million people. Canada 35 million Together about 98 million people.
Half of these people own a smartphone. So that is roughly 50 million people. Now assume this simple stat. Since these countries were the two first to see the z10 go on sale, assume that just 1% of the people in these countries now own a z10. This is hardly a reach. 1 in 100 today i am sure owns a z10. so what does that mean? it means 490k z10 were sold in the current qtr that end in 2 days. What were we spoonfed by short analyst? That they only sold 300k. So right there close to 500k imo have been sold in these 2 markets. Add in the UAE, France, Germany, Italy, India and you will easily surpass a million units sold by Saturday.
Canada has by far the largest percentage of bb phone ownership. So i think my 1% number in canada is really low. But I will stay conservative. So as you can easily see, bbry will blow out this 300k number shorts have been floating around. What does this mean for the stock price? Probably a jump of $4-5 once it's released.
So ignore the short banter and use common sense. Bbry will blow out the 300k number by probably a 4 to 1 margin. And longs will be rewarded shortly, no pun intended.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"At the close of 2012, the UK had 83 million mobile subscribers, according to January estimates from the research firm. Of these, 36 million were smartphones and 47 million were non-smartphone"
These two trends may combine to push UK smartphone penetration above 50% this year, the study found. eMarketer’s slightly more conservative estimate has UK smartphone user penetration at 45.5% by year end, reaching 55% by 2014.
By 2016, Portio Research expects that roughly three-quarters of UK mobile devices will be smartphones, creating a mobile advertising environment in which smartphones are the rule, not the exception. Portio estimates that there will be 63 million smartphones and 21 million non-smartphones in the UK at that time.
I'd give cumulative number of smartphones in UK+Canada closer to 55M (37 UK + 18M in canada)
with average replacement time 2 years is a bout ~2.3M in a month. In February Z10 been sold close to Iphone 5 rate which is about 25% , so 500K is realistic. Add all other contries it may sum up to 700-800K
in uk and canada phone replacement cycle is around 2 years, so in any quarter one in eight will buy a new phone. the 50 million people you say own a smart phone, may be a bit high - e.g. in uk 27% adults use a smart phone, but since 59% of them got it in the last year you won't be too far off soon.12.5% replace in any quarter, that's 6.25 million. if bbry has sold 490K that's 7.8% share of these 2 markets for the quarter. the smart phone market is growing fast yoy so maybe 5% share gets you there. is 5% share realistic? probably. bbry share dropped from 40% to 4% in four years to 2012. if z10 is going to be any kind of recovery at all 8-10% share sounds reasonable. all in all, i don't quite go along with your arithmetic, but think your numbers may be ok. and thanks for the exercise.
A lot of shorts seem to ignore the fact that bbry does not have to return to its former glory to be profitable. They just need to sell around 1 million units globally a quarter to make money. It is easily achievable.
Or look at it this way...Of the 50 million...maybe 20 millionbuying new phone this year...maybe 1.5 million bought last month...z10 selling as good or better than top two brands....assume one third of sales....500k
When you look at it that way, it makes so much sense. Good analysis and I think youre on to something. I think you're too conservative also. This is the best phone on the market. It's selling strong everywhere. The demand has never been higher. And the stock price? Most undervalued stock I have ever seen. It's going much higher. The jefferies analyst is correct saying it's likely going to 45-56 this year.