I'm concluding the fluctuation in the premium is a function of not only a result of the books closed but the movement in the exchange rate that apparently is not being monitored by IRE buyers!
The Euro has been falling, IRE premium should be following that trend but is doing the opposite.
You've got to love this logic. When the market moves contrary to the way Ghart anticipates, it's because everyone else is guilty of sloppy trading. It can't be because of his sloppy analyses.
doesn't the preimum usually fluctuate between 8 and 20 percent? and we are less than 14 now I'm guessing
Generally I see just under10% as the bottom and recently it approached 25% but it did get to 100% at one time!
You are correct we are around 14% at the moment but we did drift under 10% recently.
My point is the Euro has been weakening against the US Dollar recently while the premium has been on the rise.
Sloppy trading is my thinking by people not monitoring all the facts.