Last Q earnings at 80 cents/share included a charge of 16 cents/share for the debt refinicing. This one time charge will not be in Q2 earnings.
with its 3.0 billion borrowings at average interest rate of 3%, FCX paid off debt with an 8.375% interest rate. On three billion, this will result in a savings of around 160 million/year or about 40 million/Quarter or about 4 cents/share increased earnings.
Copper averaged realized price will come in around 3.45/lb., below last quarters 3.83. but with Grasberg back near full production, my estimates are for copper production of around 930 million lbs, vs. last qs 827 million lbs., so that basically cancels out the price drop. I'm predicting net positive cash flow of around 950 million or around $1/share. On top of our 31 cent/share dividend. There's a pretty significant chance of a upward surprise in gold production which has a current estimate of only 235k ounces. Gold production in Q1 was only 288K ounces due to the strike at Grasberg and I'm hoping for the company to make up a significant amount of the Q1 lost production in Q2. That would drop net cash costs of production significantly.
So we'll see what happens. I'm looking for a significant earnings beat, perhaps EPS in the 1.05 range.
please explain how in the world they can basically double gold production in q2 over their best ever rate from q4 last year.
I think you are dreaming, and the stock certainly says that you are smoking something stronger than that which the Rabbit in Alice in Wonderland used!!!
Seems more likely that there will be another strike AND they lose a larger percent of the mine than their own optimistic prognostication.
Of course, could just be the drugs I am on talking, too!
Stock price is certainly less optimistic than you .
IMO...the reason FCX is a dog is because of the ease of day trading the stock.
I was in the stock 2009 and 2010 and left it. I did not keep track and was not happy learning of the 2 for 1 split and PPS at 117.
I am now long and will not sell. I like the dividend. Currently trading at a PE of 8.8 with nice dividend and possible earnings beat coming up.
Seriously, RC, you only want to hear the rosy scenarios because you are underwater, and I get that.
I am just pointing out what the chart is saying, no matter the direction.
That said, all we have done recently is rally back to the most recent breakdown level, $35, and on declining volume.
The minimum expectation is for a test of the June 4 low. If it holds, perhaps a bottom is forming.
All joking aside.