IPX066 approval will be late 2012 as the earliest. With possible CRL, the approval will be in 2013. IPX066 has to compete with very cheap generic-immediate-release and cheap generic-extended-release. And IPXL only hired about 70 Reps -- not enough for a strong launch.
1Q11 EPS will be around $0.15. Full 2011 EPS will be around $1. It will increase a little for 2012 and 2013.
Since January, WS has had a lot of rumors and blind pumpings on IPXL. Major financial web-sites only have IPXL PPS data truncated since 2009 (due to the accounting problem from 2004 to 2008). Actually, IPXL reached above $25 in 2003 and down to single digit for a few years.
The $180M+" is milestones. You reached certain mileage, then you have certain pay. You didn't reach the mileage, the pay is zero. The GSK deal is for the rest of the world, thus something happened in the US, may don't trigger any payment at all. JMO
BTW, someone said "blockbuster." Do you know how many blockbusters were out there? There were only 33 blockbusters in total in 2010. IPX066? No chance at all.
Big deal. IPXL was up $3.40 yesterday and only gives back 72 cents on a day that the indexes were down almost 2 percent while the global mkts are melting down. Could it go lower? Yep. But a lot more upside than downside at this point.
BTW, IPX066 NDA is a 505(B(2) submission. Itself will have 3 years exclusivity only. Impax may have formulation patents associated with IPX066. Laughably, just as Impax challeging other drug makers, the generic challenges will follow IPX066 only about 6 months away from the approval date. Formulation patents are weakest patent comparing with Compound patents and Utility patents. And IPX066 cannot build a substantial sales in three short years.