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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • rinsefirst rinsefirst Jan 23, 2004 11:37 AM Flag

    KKD 2004 guidance above estimates:

    Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Issues Q4 and Fiscal 2004 Guidance; Sees Fiscal 2004 EPS Above Analysts' Expectations

    Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. announced that based on its latest review of factory store and satellite development plans, the Company now expects fiscal 2004 store openings will range between 92 and 97, exceeding the previous guidance of 87 that included 77 factory stores and 10 satellites. The Company expects to earn $0.26 per fully diluted share in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004 and $0.92 for all of fiscal 2004, including the $0.01 positive impact of the arbitration settlement recorded in the first quarter of fiscal 2004. Additionally, the Company affirmed its previously announced goal for systemwide comparable sales of 10% for the fiscal year; systemwide comp store sales in the fourth quarter are expected to be slightly above or below 10%. Wall Street analysts on average were expecting the Company to report earnings per share of $0.26 for the fourth quarter and earnings per share of $0.91 for the fiscal year 2004, according to Reuters Research.

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    • what a poste, one year ago;

    • (a.k.s. "the worm," with apologies to Dennis Rodman):

      Where are the lawsuits?

      Where's the secondary"

      Where's the SEC investigation?

      Where's "the coalition?"

      Where's the criminal activity?

      Where's the bookcooking?

      Where's your money?

      As you told your alter ego and best secret, imaginary friend recently: "Others less delicate might say balls in a vice"

      Congratulations...however, I'm not sure you have any (worms of the sub class Digenea don't have balls).

    • ... been away for a while. Gotta give the old fingers a rest.

      So what's new?

      ... Well KKD bounced off a low, up maybe 15 - 20% in recent weeks. Sure has thrown a scare into the Shorts. Longs lighting up like a Christmas Tree. Happy Days.

      So what else is new?

      ... The real news is that KK confirmed guidance for the year of $0.91-0.92 and forecasts $1.16 - 1.18 for FY06. Pretty much on target. To be confirmed Wednesday, maybe even beat EPS by a penny. Works out to 30% EPS growth projected for the coming year.

      What the hell. 30 times $1.18 is $35.40. KKD's over that already. And that's if all goes well.

      ... Just so.

      What isn't new?

      ... Same old, same old.


      1. Day trading.
      2. Short covering.
      3. Technicals.
      4. Index fund buying.
      5. Anticipated short squeeze.
      6. Forecasts for continuing growth.
      7. Recommendation of analysts, others.
      8. Like the taste of HOGS.
      9. Peter Lynch's "buy what you understand."
      10.Undefined optimism.
      11.Potential buyout by LVMH
      12.Projection of past performance.

      And the negs?

      ... Same old, same old. Maybe throw out #'s 17 and 18.


      1. Share price high relative to fundamentals
      2. Market saturation
      3. Declining growth
      4. Declining profitability
      5. Massive insider selling
      6. Questionable accounting
      7. One product company
      8. Product not proprietary
      9. Fad dying.
      10.Obesity issue
      11.Unproven growth initiatives
      12.Unethical conduct of CEO, possible criminality
      13.Cash looting by insider
      14.Massive conflicts of interest
      15.Excessive executive/director compensation
      16.Weakening balance sheet
      17.Year end audit, potential housecleaning by directors
      18.Intangibles likely to be written off
      19.New financing shares overhanging
      20.Option shares overhanging
      21.Acquisition shares overhanging
      22.Potential Institutional panic
      23.Potential class actions
      24.Increasing bad press
      25.Downgrades by major brokerages
      26.Technical analysis
      27.Short selling
      28.Day trading
      29.Portfolio balancing
      31.CFO left
      32.Director quit
      33.Momentum trading
      34.Specialist balancing
      35.Its only a donut
      36.Growing competition
      37.Bad management
      38.Failure of SoCal franchise sale
      39.Phantom Chicago store openings
      40.Board approval of $9 million NoCal settlement
      41.Cold cake donuts cheapen brand

    • Its good to see longs so happy. They havent been around for several months. Now after a sweet little 30% haircut they are very happy?? I guess because its stopped falling.I wonder if we lose these losers for good on next downturn.

    • How can anything you post be believed?

      Look at your record.

    • In one of Lynch's books he's got a chapter about some outfit that sells sticky buns. Turns out he's wandering around some mall on a Saturday morning while his daughters have ditched him so they can buy make-up or music or something. He tries some of these gooey rolls, likes 'em and decides to take a position in the stock.

    • Digenetic:

      Why don't you and tour alter ego (that imaginary friend, Harvey II, the only "firend" who corresponds with you) post your "other" KKD list (you know: KKD fraud, KKD bookcooking, class action lawsuits, coming secondary, et., etc., etc., ad nauseum)?

      Then answer the big question: why hasn't any of it ever come to pass?

      Just one, Digenetic, just one....can't you substantiate just one?

    • ...still trying to figure out what Fidelity sees in KKD. Seems they can't get enough. 15% of issued shares. shooshh

      Maybe it has to do with what's been going on in Boston.

      ... Like?

      It's those store openings. Likely an FMR analyst got caught up in the fever. And he found out something. Remember those dozen reasons to buy KKD. Its gotta be one of these.

      1. Day trading.
      2. Short covering.
      3. Technicals.
      4. Index fund buying.
      5. Anticipated short squeeze.
      6. Forecasts for continuing growth.
      7. Recommendation of analysts, others.
      8. Like the taste of HOGS.
      9. Peter Lynch's "buy what you understand."
      10.Undefined optimism.
      11.Potential buyout by LVMH
      12.Positive assurances from management.

      It was likely Number 9. But throw in Number 8 as well, that's the one that tipped the scale.


      ... Pretty profound analysis. But where's your documenation? The Doofus will want proof.

      Best that I can offer, maybe this will make her happy:$112

      ... likely not. Not much humor in that one.

    • "Its easy to say someone who disagrees with you is a nitwit, but are they?"

      An extremely relevant question.

      Where's the beef, oh subclass worm???

      Class action lawsuits?


      Criminal acitivity?






    • ... Wow!! Fidelity added 3.7 million KKD for the quarter. They now have 9 million shares. Total institutional holdings now up to 75%. Hard to believe..

      Believe it. Deal with it. Fact.

      ... They must be the world's biggest nitwits.

      Maybe not. Its easy to say someone who disagrees with you is a nitwit, but are they?

      ... How do you figure it?

      They're nitwits. Hard to imagine what the positive rationale is, yet they must have one. Fundamenal? Technical? Hard to say.

      But consider.

      --- Stock has been declining all the while Fidelity's been buying. They caused the bubble last quarter -- accounted for something like 25% of all trading volume -- and here they've been back at it again, loading up as KKD has been tanking. If FMR had not been in the market over the past six months??? ... maybe in the 20's today. No great groundswell of instituional support for KKD, just one Elephant pissing against the wind.

      --- Audited earnings yet to be announced. Phalen young, inexperienced, new to the job, a Wall Street sharpster, not a numbers man. Does he have the judgement to forecast the final earnings number??? ... after the Auditors have signed off? After McCoy and the Audit Committee has made its peace with Montana Mills? Or is he being spoon fed numbers, pressured by Livengood?

      ... So how do you see it?

      A potentially explosive situation. If all goes well from management's viewpoint the Shorts are going to be badly disappointed. But if the final number can't be made, or if its made by obvious subterfuge, or if there's a special 'one-time' explanation. Seventy-five percent institutional ownership in such a situation is pure dynamite.

      ... and so?

      Well, Big Longs might well conclude this is the Last Hurrah. Their last great chance to cut and run. Better exit now than run the risk of an earnings disappointment. That FMR buying spree the worrysome thing. And again, Elephants are herd animals. They watch each other. The sniff of smoke? And the Big Shorts also have something to think about. Big Block moves ahead.

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