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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • diogenes1234 diogenes1234 Feb 23, 2005 10:40 AM Flag

    The Elephants' Gavotte

    An ominous confluence lies ahead:

    � March 18: KZC 60 day deadline for �Success Fee� negotiation.
    � March 21: Option Expiration � Triple Witching
    � March 25: End of Wachovia loan waver.
    � March 29: Beginning of 10th Month of SEC Investigation without comment

    Most importantly:

    � March 31: End of Calendar Quarter for most Institutions -- Window Dressing time.

    At last report, Institutions were long 48 million KKD shares. Most are limited by regulation, charter, or policy from holding bankrupt equities. None relish publishing such a holding in their quarterly reports.

    Big KKD Longs know this. Bankruptcy or not, what to date has been an orderly liquidation of institutional holdings could well trigger itself into a stampede. Big Shorts know this and can afford to be patient.

    ... the days trickle down to a precious few......

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    • This is how a completed correction in a dynamic downtrend ought to look. Today we had a breakaway move on heavy volume. MoneyStream is leading boldly, TSV is very divergent and BOP is cooperative. I'd call it a sell here

    • ptg, the more I read of your posts, the less coherent they are.

      "Steady price" the day after the stock dropped 4%? And after it's lost more than half its value in a month and a half?

      Buy the stock because analysis shows that it's worth less than it's selling for?

    • "So does the steady price here concern you? I don't know about you, but it would scare me."

      ...the 'steady price' is merely an up a 3 year chart.

      ...I take very long term willingness to stick with this one, as I said, is due to the potential for it to go into bankruptcy in which case it is going to stay as a credit on my account.

    • Many stocks trade at one price at one time, then at a different price at a subsequent time, without the appearance of new news of sufficient substance to explain the change.

      Your argument presupposes that markets are sufficiently rational that any stock that appears overpriced in fact is probably underpriced, because the most likely explanation of a discrepancy between apparent value and price is inside information. (You haven't provided any reason that the price of KKD now, as opposed to that of any overpriced stock in general, is controlled by inside information.) But it also presupposes that markets are irrational in that they ignore the likely existence of insider information when they set prices.

      I prefer to think, and there is plenty of evidence for it, that markets are sometimes irrational, and sometimes imperfectly digest available information.

      Putting the above in plain language: I think you'll do better buying what detailed analysis shows should be $6 stocks for $2 than you will do if you consistently buy what detailed analysis shows should be $2 stocks for $6. You think the opposite.

    • So maybe you can explain why we are not at $2 just like any other stock that would be close to BK. Who is buying in the $6 range and why?

    • Those big news lawsuits you describe is actually 1 lawsuit which was kommenced on January 13 (in your "perfect efficiency of markets" doesn't that qualify as old news?). The other "lawsuit" was a rehashing of the January 13th suit by a lawfirm trying to hook klients for the original suit which they didn't even file themselves.

      filing firm:


    • "Big moves will follow news, not message board commentary."

      So we just had some big news concerning lawsuits. What affect has that had on the price?

    • "I always seem to cover too soon. "

      You cover too soon, I buy too soon, LOL!

      Beg to differ with you on whether you should cover. You have made a fortune here, to risk that for $2-$3 more doesn't seem worth it to me but hey, you've been right so far.

      So does the steady price here concern you? I don't know about you, but it would scare me.

    • I think the concept of inertia is relevant here. The market, consisting of various fractions of investors and traders, takes time to adjust to available information and changing reality.

      I don't agree we are stuck around 6; I think the downward trend is still playing out. Many of us currently have a "wait and see" attitude because a number of deadlines/milestones are looming in March. Big moves will follow news, not message board commentary.

    • " There is every logical reason to believe this is heading for BK. So why aren't we at $2? $1? $0.50??"

      ...ah, logic and the price of KKD have nothing in common. Why was this stock ever north of $40? Look at the posts back then...all the bulls were convinced this was going to $80.

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