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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • lawboy27dli lawboy27dli Mar 13, 2007 1:24 PM Flag

    Response to Davey

    <<O.K., you're one happy camper. Why don't you go out on a limb and give us a forcast of how the 4th quarter is going to shape up. Tell us what Co. stores figures will be and also KKM&D and Franchise. I'm 100% certain that you and any other bull on KKD won't rise to the challenge.>>


    Here is the problem with that from my perspective: it is a waste of my time.

    First, I will grant you that you and your buddies are better accountants than me. That does not bother me very much, however, because all of your accounting acumen led you to a grievous error (several, actually) with respect to the much anticipated bankruptcy (BK) of KKD. You folks predicted it on several different occasions and have been incorrect every time.

    What matters is this: that the numbers, when filed, reflect the general improvement in management of the Brewster/Jervik regime. Costs are down, efficiencies are up, etc. Other than that, I don�t try to predict the numbers, they merely verify (or refute) my expectations. To date, I am neither surprised nor disappointed with KKD�s financials, although I cannot say I am thrilled either. It is my opinion that � just with good management � KKD will be marginally profitable. Why? Because it has been previously. The New Debt? If necessary, further dilution of stock to pay it off (though I do not think it will come to this).

    I am more interested in �the Plan�. What is the Plan? When will Brewster find that magic something (coffee, anyone?) to go along with the fabulous doughnut and take KKD beyond its �razor thin margins�? And that, Davey, is what is going to end up kicking your ass, as well as every other short in the Doughnut. The longer you hang around, the more likely it is to happen.

    P.S. As long as were playing this game, what�s the burn rate? When is the new consensus BK date? Hmmm, Davey?

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    • This, coming from a guy who is short the market but believes that a sub-par bakery will hold up if the market tanks!

      "After the Great Crash, I walked through the wasteland of the financial district, and there, in the quiet, amongst the litter and debris of yesterday's trading tickets, I saw something that caught my eye....

      It was a pizza carton, an empty case of beer, and a Krispy Kreme box..."


    • This, coming from a guy who is short the market but believes that a sub-par bakery will hold up if the market tanks!

    • look at kkd as bakery with thin margins....
      With the stock at $10 and dubious forecast by analysts...
      Fundamentals ultimately trump technicals....
      $22 is a pipe dream...
      the donut becoming a player in the coffee arena is an even bigger pipe dream.

      I bet your just a "barrel of monkeys" at a party! :o)

    • Dude, cheer up! You're up $.09 today!

      Look, if this is life or death to you, I'm sorry. I think KKD is now undervalued. I think the management sees the same things you do about the short-comings of the beloved doughnut, but instead of throwing up their hands and saying, "Impossible!", they are working their asses off to cut costs and find a complementary product.

      Sue me for being an optimist.

    • A little cocky now aren't we? Let's see, blue thinks KKD is going to $14 then $22(doesn't really know when) based solely on looking at a chart(the beautifully, round, saucer pattern), and you think that new management has a silver bullet that will right the ship. I, on the other hand, being a southerner and growing up eating kkd's, look at kkd as bakery with thin margins whose most profitable year had them earning $2 million dollars. With the stock trading at $10 and dubious forecast by analysts of earning $0.00 in 2007 and $.26 in 2008, that would give it a pe of 1000 and 38 respectively. This is very high for a bakery.

      Fundamentals ultimately trump technical analysis in the long run. KKD is actually a better "short" play on the next year versus a "long" play. Blue missed his chance to make some good dough on the donut and he may get another chance to get out at $13, but $22 is a pipe dream and the donut becoming a player in the crowded coffee arena is an even bigger pipe dream.

    • I think his evaluations of the posters on this board have been insightful and perspicacious (had to throw that in).

    • Now you're ragging on doughnuts again! That really make my blood boil!! (well, almost...)

      Hey listen,old Buylow buddy- if it's on TV and doesn't have anything to do with cartoons, why would think I would I know about it? And don't tell me you're one of those people that actually watches the dreck on network TV.... (things are getting clearer now)

      It really doesn't matter what it was anyway- that post was a shot across your bow. You know I like to do that, for "shucks and giggles"...


    • OK, quit it. I know when someone is shining me on.

      I am laughing my butt off here, but I am in a pretty good mood overall, even without your substantial contribution.

      I think you are correct with respect to the market at large Blue, bad things are coming. Getting out and moving to safety, that's as close to a short as I get.

      I'm going to sit on the side of the pool for a while, at least until housing and the credit markets shake themselves out. Jump back in when things are a bit more rational.

    • What I write here has been pretty solid

      Solid? You must be kidding? That's an understatement!

      The image I have of the "Juggernaut" is this huge behemoth of a machine, just destroying and grinding up anything foolish enough to jump into it's path! Kinda like one of those tunnel diggers....

      All challengers have been reduced to dust... It's truly been a joy to witness! :o)

    • See, Blue and I are busy providing this board with solid information while you lazy shorts sit around watching TV and (insert your own pernicious activity here).

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