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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

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  • glsierra glsierra Jan 25, 2010 4:16 PM Flag

    Why the drop?

    A couple of analyst reports came out today. Maybe they were, ummmm, less than favorable. Remember, this stock doesnt really have any real analyst coverage. So any reports that come out that are negative..... stock will fall hard. Flip side, if any reports (in the future) come out then it should pop nicely. Presumably.

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    • Well, you can use it as an opportunity to accumulate if you like the KKD brand, product, and business. Assuming financial results and cash flow keep improving you will be fine. This a speculative turnaround play. Don't gamble the family farm. Future growth will have to come from their small store concept.

      Volume today was average. More sellers than buyers no doubt. But, the sky was not falling with folks in panic mode running for the exits.

      Resistance is 2.50+/-...We blow through that...Hold on it might be a long way down. Put a stop in that range to mitigate some risk if you are playing the long side.

      If you are like Skidady and think this is an absolute "POS" at the moment. Short it. Ride wave down. He appears to be vigilant on the topic based on his posts. What is your target on the downside Skidady? Do you have issue with the business, management, valuation or all three?

      • 2 Replies to tightlinesnfreshtracks
      • Okay,tight. I have a problem with the business and the valuation, but not management. They have inherited a can of worms and seem to be doing as good a job as can be expected with the mess. The business needs to be rebuilt. It's based on the donut shop on steroids theme from the Livengood(previous CEO) era and just doesn't work. Possibly that can be fixed, but don't expect much headway until KKD retires present debt which carries draconian covenants that severely limit Cap Ex and have punitive interest rates. As far as valuation goes, I'd expect something a little closer to book value whick is .90. This includes about .35 of goodwill which is debateable. Compare to P/book of WEN which is close to 1.

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