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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • skiidady skiidady Dec 31, 2010 4:03 PM Flag

    7 Broken

    Was that a psycholigical barrier point?

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    • thelyingherd. i know its not realistic in the short term. i'm just saying that it would be a huge price boosting move if they did it. they wont... but i would certainly hope that within the next 2-3 years they at least give it very serious consideration.

      mean time, i'll simply be happy if they aggressively pay down to get that monkey off their back.

    • glsierra

      I hope so! Ten would be very nice but I would be realy happy at $12-$13, rolling further into 2011.
      Cood Luck to all real KKD share holders!

    • Oh ... one more thing.

      If they declare a dividend any time in FY12, even if tiny... this thing will rocket.

      I predict this year will close out at about 19c EPS (above the 17c concensus now). Next year consensus is 30c (I think it will probably be more like 33c).

      Lets say its 30c though. If they declare a dividend of say 8c (2c / quarter), that'll be a huge boost to the stock.

      Here's what I would do if Mgmt...

      Assuming FY11 = 17c EPS and FY1 = 30c. I would manage profits so that earnings above 20c are strictly dedicated to debt paydown and starting a dividend. That shouldnt put any negative strains on cash flows since CF is already there to pay down debt a bit. Just increase that paydown rate a little bit more then tack on the div.


    • I agree. This stock will rebound leading into the quarter/FY close.

      I can only pray that management is being smart and continuing to pay down debt this quarter! They hardly paid down any debt in Q1 and Q2. Then smartly paid down some $6M or so in Q3. I am hoping that Q4/FY close will show debt that starts with a "2"... even $29.9M will be fine by me so long as it starts with a "2".

      I dont have illusions of kkd hitting $teens any time this year... but it should flirt with $10 by late summer.... $8+ when it reports in April or so.

    • That's why I got out for the moment - no reason to leave $$$ tied up in a stock that is just going to hang around for a bit. Lots of other places to make money. See you 6 weeks for the next run-up!

    • Its the beginning of the new year. this stock will decline a bit then start climbing leading into Feb and Mar. Samething happened last year. Remember, in 2009, the stock was closing out comparatively high ($4s). Then in the new year 2010 it tanked to mid $2s before climbing right back up to high $4s or $5.

      I predict the same thing will happen here. It will linger in the high $6s until late Jan/early Feb when it will start to rise again.

      And by the time they announce FY and Q4 (likely to be in late Mar or early Apr), the stock should be flying in the $8s. Short covering may push it right up to $9 ---- MAYBE.

    • Shouldn't you be watching cartoons?

    • Nah, only for losers. No volume, only reenforced my perspective. Stock was flying UP under high volume. Someone was very timely with the down grade during a holiday season (real buyers are in the islands, Hawaii, Hamptons, etc.) and did a good job managing it down under seven.

      Next week is going to be fun, looking forward to the long and trading opportunities to come.

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