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Chembio Diagnostics, Inc. Message Board

  • j.jacos j.jacos May 10, 2013 3:41 PM Flag

    What happens if AIDS gets cured?

    I've been watching this stock for a while and I'm thinking of buying now that it's off it's highs. There's huge upside potential here but one thing worries me. What happens if overnight this company's main product becomes obsolete? This company has a massive potential black swan.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • You need to think for a moment. Cured is based on individual patients that are diagnosed with HIV. The diagnostic event still goes on year by year. Eradicated is like smallpox and (pending WHO testing) polio in humans. When eradication occurs the world stops vaccinating and they generally stop testing. But that is not what would happen with HIV because it is a latent onset (delayed clinical signs) virus. Some people are infected for years before they manifest any signs. With that info, do you really believe that HIV testing is going to be anything but increased in the near future?!? Or even long term future.

      The real breakout situation for CEMI is getting the proprietary antigens for their own test that is totally CEMI property. Then they have a built in 300% markup or more over manufacturing. Their test device costs less than a reasonably low $ number to make (I do not want to give away any insider info and get LS mad at me). With a test that is totally owned by CEMI and with 5,000,000 sales per year, they could easily generat $50,000,000 in revenues par year. That is why I believe that environmental testing is the key. I now of one test that every 100 yards of swimming beach has to be tested for pollution every month during the swimming season. Fresh or salt water beaches both Little kids get ear infections and sometimes people get food poisoning. Hint.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Then people will want to get tested. Also, there will always be a need for testing unless the cure is atmospherically released in a way the it innocates all aids carrying organisms.

      I think (hope) I'll be well off by the time Chembio runs low on Aids testing revenue potential.

    • Hopefully...we will all be very happy!!! Then...Chembio will move on to other diseases that need their cheaper, better, quicker and longer shelf life diagnostic solution. They already have a long list coming to market 2014-2015. Even with a cure for aids...testing will continue for many, many find out whether a person is positive or negative. It becomes even more important to know if you're infected. Next.:)

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