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GasLog Ltd. (GLOG) Message Board

  • befree03 befree03 Sep 24, 2012 10:41 AM Flag

    Divie Big Big

    Gut feeling tells me the div will be slightly higher than expected (guidance is .11 cents start 4Q12). CFO and board must have underestimated for maximum optical effect. Stock will move then to just under IPO price. Jefferies probably knows this.

    Meanwhile, Shell builds the biggest LNG THING ever (search shell and LNG in Bloomberg). Amazing engineering job.

    This is good for us as offshore or onshore LNG will need to be shipped. The more offshore LNG (i.e., relatively new concept) the better for us, of course. More stuff to ship even if LNG prices (may possibly) come off a bit. - we are shippers, not producers.

    For those worried about shale in other places being discovered and developed (i.e., in Europe and China or India) and thus reducing potential LNG markets, worry not - I checked Google maps and discovered there are no pipelines in place anywhere in China or India and there are plenty of misguided, clueless, corn-diesel-consuming political greens in Europe). No pipelines - no shale to market. Pipelines take long to build (expensive, permits, etc.). Users will still need to burn imported LNG at or nearby import terminals.

    Thus, we should be safe for next 20 years. Lets wait for the divy news in a few weeks.

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    • i dont think the div will be higher. if they pay out more would be less money for the options they have. i rather not have another offering.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to bill3442li
      • You may be right. I agree - the lesser shares (generally) the better. Either way, though, through a bigger than expected starting div or an option exercised, stock will move to 14 by year end, in my view. I say this while not expecting GLOG to explode upwards like biotech or internet stocks of old. GLOG, due to its basic bis model, is essentially limited for next 5 years to 13-16 range with yield of 5% (on 10) but with dividend yield (based on a purchase price of 10) gradually but steadily increasing. I would be very happy with GLOG in the high 12's or 13 by year end. In any case, even with the ecpected divie, when it is announced and starts getting paid, stock will move up another 2-3%.

    • I do hope the Shell floating LNG palace works - it reminds me of an eccentric billionaire in the 70's (that was a bunch of money then!). I think he was a German fellow. He invested in large eucalyptus plantations in the Amazon and - for his major innovation - had a pulp mill built on a massive barge (he had it made in Japan, I recall - cheap, cheap then). Then he shipped the unit on a barge to Brasil. It turned out that it was so hot inside that he needed some 6-8 shiftsper day as it essentially involved working a super hot sauna. Not sure whatever happened to that barge-mill but I believe he lost his shirt.

16.85Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT