Didn't Merrill fail? I wouldn't put to much stock in anything that they have to say.
Use your common sense, do you see homes around you selling? Do you see foreclosures rising? Where are all these buyers going to come from? Homebuilders were an all star group for ten years. Now, because of their own mismanagement of debt and inventory they are destined to suffer a lot of pain for at least the same time frame.
Stock prices are based on future earnings. Lumber prices are forecasting a pickup in demand. Of course i read the news, but this is not how you make money in the market. Very few homes have been built the last 3 years after an oversupply. We will have a strong market again, is it this year, next or the year after? I believe we hit bottom last year and Lumber prices to me is the best indicator i've seen.